Sunday, November 1, 2026

Portfolio Update: October 2026 + Q3 Earnings outlook

Calumet and other refiners sold off alongside AI names, but the RIN thesis for renewable fuel earnings remains unchanged ahead of Q3 results.

CLMT $4.3B

Treasure Hunting 47h ago 2 clicks

47h ago MO $130B

Altria: Dutiful

Invariant 2 clicks

Nov 1 CRWD $267B

Sleep Well Portfolio (Oct 2026) - SWI#25 and #26 Adding Exposure to AI.

Sleep Well Investments 6 clicks

From X

@finphysnerd 33h ago 1 click

Myles on X

$AAPL is a pretty straightforward short here imo. Even ignoring the ridiculous valuation, it's become a flight to safety stock. If we get a proper market crash I can't see it continuing to hold up, meanwhile if we get a recover in the Q's we likely see a rotation out.

@finphysnerd 34h ago 1 click

Myles on X

$GRND has gotten cheap again. Short report concerns have been mostly shrugged off. It's still one of the best businesses in the world and now trading at 24x trailing earnings. Will be adding a bit and buying dips.

@BarbarianCap 36h ago 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

7/n $BSP CEO @luke10ferrari on Joys of Compounding @Buhrman_Rick ⁠@PaulBuser⁠ Sounds like a very thoughtful operator, not that he needs my opinion https://t.co/Xwd1Namvk8

@finphysnerd 37h ago 3 clicks

Myles on X

I think $HONA looks pretty attractive here. Some execution risk, but this is fundamentally a fantastic business that is experiencing short term issues, while experiencing spinoff selling and hedge fund degrossing. I think it's hard to lose too much money here.

@negligible_cap 38h ago 2 clicks

Negligible Capital on X

Wonder when $META will do the same for Muse. They obviously can sustain it a lot longer than SpaceX but Muse (as Zuck noted on their call) is very expensive Have seen sell side putting around $180 / year cost estimates per user in the free tier. Not cheap https://t.co/j1RqQzdZpZ

@ACapitalLP 38h ago 2 clicks

A Capital on X

The market seems to be valuing $GRND like a traditional swipe app with a shrinking payer base ($MTCH), rather than a utility for a community with no real substitute. The engagement numbers are absurd. Data shows Grindr users spending 6h 27m/month on the app vs. 2h 10m for Hinge and 1h 30m for Tinder (~3x and ~4.3x, respectively). Add $26.50 ARPPU, 16% payer growth, and ~42% EBITDA margins. Not exactly the economics of a dying dating app…

@ACapitalLP 38h ago 1 click

A Capital on X

Why isn’t $GRND asymmetric into the 11/5 print? At $12.65, it’s ~10x ‘27 EBITDA pre-Freddie, alt data shows MAUs reaccelerating, and the call should clarify Freddie’s margin dilution. The Ithaca Holdings take-private of $BMBL and Zage’s $18 bid last year provide interesting valuation reference points… What’s the bear actually leaning on?

@ParadisLabs 39h ago 1 click

Paradis on X

Pretty crazy: $AAPL is now negatively correlated to $QQQ for the first time ever. The market is treating Apple as a safe haven from AI capex. https://t.co/KnzKu2Fpff

Portfolio Update October 2026

Portfolio returned over 15% in October, lifting cumulative gains to 103.5%, while adding 3i Group and increasing Floor & Decor and…

TGOPF $33BTSCO $18B

D Invests Nov 1 3 clicks

Agnico Eagle: Soaring Above The Peer Group

Agnico Eagle expects low-end 2026 guidance despite Barnat setbacks, while Hope Bay, Upper Beaver and Odyssey support production above 4…

AEM $84B

Taylor Dart Nov 1 3 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B

John Hempton's Newsletter Oct 31 3 clicks

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Amazon reported Q3 2026 net sales up 12% year over year to $201.9 billion, narrowly below the $202.3 billion consensus estimate.

AMZN $2.6T

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets Oct 31 7 clicks

Expert Call | Optical Module Ramps, Lumentum vs. Coherent Momentum, Server CPU, and Advanced Packaging Constraints

AAOI, Lumentum and Coherent 800G ramps, NVIDIA Rubin timing, and AMD, Intel and Arm server CPU demand frame an expert call on AI…

LITE $83BCOHR $47B

P Equity Research Oct 31 1 click

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $16B

Stock Thoughts Oct 31 4 clicks

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T

Yiannis Zourmpanos Oct 31 2 clicks

Life360 ($LIF): The Family App Wall Street Fell Out of Love With

Life360 has fallen 60% despite 40% revenue growth, 100 million monthly users and profitability, as its family-safety subscriptions and…

LIF $3.6B

Substack von Philipp Oct 31 3 clicks

Anthropic’s Growth is Slowing: Is AI Capex Next? | The Weekly Wrap

Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3, raising questions about AI capital spending as Amazon holds capex flat.

AMZN $2.6T

Steve Eisman Oct 30 5 clicks

American Tower's Starlink Opportunity

American Tower could gain $1.13 to $3.54 in AFFO per share if Starlink accesses 80,000 U.S. cell sites and becomes a fourth major tenant.

AMT $88B

Dane Bowler Oct 30 3 clicks

GNCGF · long

Greencore Group PLC

Greencore is the UK’s leading fresh prepared food producer, pitched as undervalued with potential to nearly double within 12–24 months.

GNCGF $3.1B

Value Investors Club Jul 15 1 click

Q3 2026 Jenga IP Quarterly Letter

Jenga Global Master Fund returned 8.10% in Q3 2026, added Adobe and Mexican airports, and later initiated S&P Global.

ADBE $97B

Global Outperformers Oct 12 3 clicks

Howmet Aerospace: Strong Q2, But The Valuation Is Too Rich

Howmet Aerospace posted 24% Q2 revenue growth and 46% adjusted EPS growth, but HWM trades about 87% above a $120.69 DCF fair-value estimate.

HWM $80B

Alexander I. Velasquez Oct 12 2 clicks

LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a…

LQDA $4BUTHR $26B

Trade Ideas Flow Oct 12 5 clicks

Magna: International Expansion And Growing Margins

Magna International’s gross margin reached 14.7% and operating margin 5.6%, supporting double-digit earnings growth alongside EV investment…

MGA $17B

David Zanoni Oct 12 1 click

Global-e: The Invisible Engine Behind the Brands You Buy From Directly Online! $GLBE

Global-e provides cross-border merchant-of-record, payments, tax and fulfillment services to more than 1,500 brands, including Shopify…

GLBE $7.2B

Substack von Philipp Oct 12 6 clicks

some thoughts on FICO

FICO’s mortgage credit-score monopoly sits at the center of a GSE-dominated U.S.

FICO $15B

scuttleblurb Oct 12 4 clicks

Penguin Solutions: Explosive AI Growth At A Surprisingly Low Valuation

Penguin Solutions grew FY2026 revenue 26% as AI data-center and memory demand expanded, while negative free cash flow and cyclical memory…

PENG $3.6B

Investor Overview Oct 12 5 clicks

“Is Ralph Lauren Still Relevant?”

Ralph Lauren’s 2017 CEO change put Patrice Louvet in charge of reversing nine quarters of same-store sales declines and restoring the…

RL $23B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 12 1 click

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) Stock Rating: HOLD After Q2 FY1/27 Earnings

Marvell’s Q2 revenue rose 37% to $2.74 billion, with data centers contributing 79%, while FY1/27 guidance targets roughly $12 billion in…

MRVL $150B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 12 1 click

Sunday, November 1, 2026

Myles on X

Myles on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Myles on X

Negligible Capital on X

A Capital on X

A Capital on X

Paradis on X

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