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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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Altria: Dutiful

Altria raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.66 to $5.74 and authorized more buybacks, while on! loses share as cigarette margins hold.

MO $130B
Invariant 2 clicks

From X

@ParadisLabs

Paradis on X

Quick thoughts ahead of $META earnings shortly: Key question: What does the monetization roadmap look like for Muse? Despite app downloads showing that AI capex is translating into real demand, my gut feeling is that Zuck will give a more hollistic view on AI monetization that lacks any real detail. This ultimately boils down to Meta's strategy of scale first, monetize later. Which then raises the usual capex questions particularly with Meta now positioning themselves as a frontier AI lab with their new Muse Wonder models. They'll need more compute if they're really taking this AI thing seriously. The current FY26 capex guide is $130-145B, so any increase to this without a clear AI monetization roadmap could be detrimental if I take a glass-half-empty view...particularly with consensus FCF deeply in the red at roughly -$9B for Q3. So how do Meta finance this exactly? Is it via their Blackrock agreement, or some combination of debt/equity? Again, something we'll need clarity on, layered on top of their monetization plans. I ultimately think that Zuck needs to really sell the longer-term AI vision today.
@convequity 5 clicks

Convequity on X

AI models are now writing the kernels that made CUDA so hard to leave, and we think this breaks another part of $NVDA's moat. Kernels are the code that tells a chip how to carry out each basic step an AI model repeats, and how well that code is written decides how fast the model runs. Nvidia prebuilt a huge range of these through CUDA. Anyone building their own chip had to write that software from scratch, which was slow, hard and a big reason to think twice before starting a custom-chip project. OpenAI showed at Hot Chips in August that this is changing. On Jalapeño, its Broadcom ($AVGO) built chip, an internal version of Codex wrote attention and mixture-of-experts kernels that ran 1.5 to 1.8x faster than ones written by human experts. Within about three months of getting its first working chips, OpenAI had three open-weight models running on Jalapeño, even though none of them was designed for it. Our view: if AI can write the kernels, the software barrier that held back custom chips gets much lower, and we expect more companies to start their own chip projects. Investors still do not pay enough attention to that consequence. Deeper dive available at Convequity.

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
T · short

At&t INC

AT&T’s stalled deleveraging and share repurchase case has prompted a bearish turn on the telecom stock.

T $144B
Value Investors Club

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T
Yiannis Zourmpanos 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.6T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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