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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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@HedgeyeRetail

Brian McGough on X

$DKS approaching ATH with a solid gain in a red retail tape. We're short it, so it's working against me right now. Recently moved it lower on our Position Monitor as near-term fundys are in the company's favor. Data looks good right now -- but the data doesn't show margins. And that's my biggest concern here -- zero flow through from comp to margin in the DSG concept (especially house of sport). And FL, well, it's still FL. #DickLocker
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$FIS I appreciate the ai narrative and stable coins narrative for broad payment sector names...but $FIS at current prices seems like a good Depp value opportunity. In general the rubber band seems very far stretched between the momentum names in semi capX and the ai "losers" and mega cap tech. Whether its sell the news on $MU earnings, end of quarter rebalancing etc, seems we are on the cusp of a rotation. (even if its only short lasting, should be quite volatile as we say several weeks ago). [going long Amzn, select software, fis, select med tech to play that versus short the SOXX, some derivative names like $CAT]
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Odd two day movement in $KMX after earnings... Agree with the day 1 action - a stock that came into the report on a blistering run, and while the co. reported "improved" results, there are significant challenges still in front of them. Most of the improvement is driven by a dramatic lowering of sale prices to increase sales (gross profit dollars still lower). And that is a lever that will likely remain a permanence as they try and respond to efforts from $CVNA and others. I will credit them on lowering expenses as well, likely low hanging fruit and moves to reduce ("automate") reconditioning again following the caravan playbook of leaving cars closer to as returned. issues on loans remains in a market that is significantly challenged and does not appear on the verge of improving any time soon. The cha cha move Thursday and Friday would argue sets up a better short opportunity in the name as you have removed the IV from earnings to now look out the next few months on put/spreads looking for a cooling off. *even sell side numbers I put little stock in almost all are below, and most significantly from the current price (one could argue thats bullish to rerate but I see this more like Birk that is behaving more like a squeeze than actual fundamentals, hence the wide divergence)
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$BSX ?? flat over the past 5 years. Can point to slowing growth from very elevated levels as farapulse and watchman have larger bases, some competition entering these spaces, glp1 on the margin to case loads over time, new inhibitors that could be coming from Lilly, novo, but at current $ sure seems like a lot is baked in at current prices. Innovative cardio franchise that has: Revenue has effectively doubled - predominately from farapulse and watchman (not m&a) Operating income 1.8B to 4.1B EBIT - $1.4B to 4.1B 3.5x on EPS (.69 to $2.40/share current) gross, operating, net, ebit, ebitda margins all expanded over that timeframe FCF more than 2x, opcf 2.5x The difference is you get to buy it at the same share price today, shares outstanding are virtually flat. Perhaps the defensive nature of medtech is sold in the aggressive risk on market we are in but growth still solid here with dividend and margin of safety versus other areas certainly seems worth a look, as is the rest of medtech as a place to hunt for value to wait until the market rotates back
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Pretty incredible market sells off software again aggressively at the same time ramping up public private credit exposed names like $MFC, $ARES, $FG (CEO left suddenly yesterday) all because they ride alongside the aggressive buying in money center banks in financial etc flows ($JPM up 14% in June). Seems like there needs to be some dispersion in public private credit and software - one side at current prices has to be wrong, guessing private credit lower is how the dispersion resolves itself

Investor Letters

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $13B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

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