Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

From X

@majgeoinvesting 2 clicks

Maj Soueidan on X

The stock’s I’m most interested in from the last group of Delta Sheets: $XBP Post-merger integration story that went bad, quickly. Can the turnaround strategy outlast the high debt burden? New contract wins, potential asset sales and expense cuts give it a glimmer of a hope. It’s high risk, but the re-rate would be pretty significant. Agentic AI. 🤢⏳ $SGRP Has had several failed turnaround attempts of its labor-heavy merchandising model. However, governance improvements + $TRAK becoming a 30% shareholder are interesting. 🤢⏳ $FSI Near-term earnings are being depressed by upfront costs to scale new food-grade contracts and new facility, setting up a potential revenue/margin inflection as those investments begin producing sales. Bad Q2 might have been the “kitchen sink” quarter. 🤔🔥 $ELWT Very interesting business (smart buildings integration). Executive Chairman has done it before. But do they have the access to non-dilutive capital to monetize a large backlog? Should they have waited a year before going public? ⏳ $IRIX Glaucoma consumables are finally showing growth (consumables volume +35%), but system (hardware) placements are not setting the world on fire. Also, other parts of the business are offsetting progress. New CEO has made some real strides. 🤢⏳ $LYTS Profitable industrial compounder driven by accelerating organic growth, good acquisition history and expanding margins. However, they hit their first blip with their last acquisition - Integration issues and weaker margins than expected on the backlog of the acquired business. Might be an interesting buy the pullback set-up to watch. Will probably take a few quarters to know if it’s a short-term issue or something bigger. 🤔🔥 $BOSC Profitable aerospace/defense supply-chain play. Q2 numbers were good, but was more of Q1 delayed orders hitting Q2. Where’s your acquisition! 🤷🔥 $TGEN Despite all the pessimism, I’m still betting on the data center cooling contract win catalyst to come through. Two years ago, hyper-scalers weren’t part of the growth plan, nor was the non-data center power business. Now, they are. ⏳ $FTLF Can the company grow acquisitions, post acquisition? Time will tell… Regardless, they are generating a good deal of earnings and paying down debt deployed as part of the acquisition strategy. 🤔 $CNVS Don’t love ad-tech businesses, but their new all in one solution that has recurring revenue is interesting for now. It supplements their legacy lumpy movie creations business, which they should sell, and their content streaming business. 🤔 $SNT Profitable physical-security technology company with recurring software/service potential and exposure to increasing demand for perimeter protection of critical infrastructure. Can their acquired LiDAR business more than offset their non-dependable legacy business? Stock is falling apart, due to years of lack of execution. 🤔 $IFA.TO Performance-apparel technology company where the opportunity is continued adoption/licensing of its new textile technologies translating into high-margin growth. 🔥 $COV.V Is the long-awaited growth inflection finally happening: Q3 revenue +20%, gross margin hit 67%, EBITDA tripled to $3M, contamination-protection sales +68%, and it has $19M cash with no bank debt. The next couple quarters will tell us a lot. 🤔 🔥 $OML.V Profitable aerospace/defense precision-components company hitting record revenue and backlog, with 1.34x book-to-bill and no debt. Some nice operating-leverage. 🔥
@stockgutter 2 clicks

SG on X

$ADUR I was so intrigued by the "Magic Kitchen" slop that Aduro's AI gave you that I asked my own question: 2:32 PM why has aduro diluted so much over the past two years? 2:32 PM That's a fair and important question to ask directly. Let me walk you through the factual picture of how and why our share count has grown over the past two years. Why Aduro Has Issued Shares: The Core Reason Aduro is a pre-revenue, pre-commercial clean technology company. We fund our operations — R&D, lab expansion, pilot plant construction, and scale-up activities — entirely through equity financing, since we do not yet generate meaningful operating revenue. For fiscal year 2024, the operating loss was $7,436,861 ACT:CNX_2024-11..., and for the nine months ended February 28, 2026, the operating loss was $14,346,919 ACT:CNX_2026-04.... That cash has to come from somewhere, and for us, it comes from issuing shares and warrants. The Specific Equity Issuances (Chronological) Here is a summary of the key capital raises and share issuance events over the past two years: [Chart omitted because it does not copy over] The Non-Cash Component Is Significant It is worth noting that a meaningful portion of the share count increase is non-cash dilution — specifically share-based compensation. For the nine months ended February 28, 2026, share-based compensation expense was $5,548,758 ACT:CNX_2026-04.... This reflects options and RSUs granted to employees, directors, and consultants as part of their compensation, which vest over time and convert to shares upon exercise. This is standard practice for early-stage technology companies competing for talent. The Class B Special Warrants: A Unique Event One significant share issuance — 4,102,562 pre-split shares (approximately 1.26 million post-consolidation shares) — was issued for no cash consideration when the Company achieved its Second Milestone in August 2024 ACT:CNX_2025-08.... These were warrants issued as part of the original Aduro Energy acquisition in 2021 ACT:CNX_2024-11..., and their conversion was a contractual obligation tied to a technology milestone, not a financing decision. What the Capital Has Been Used For The disclosed use of proceeds across these financings has been consistent ACT:CNX_2026-04...ACT:CNX_2024-12...ACT:CNX_2025-06...ACT:CNX_2026-01...ACT:CNX_2026-04...ACT:CNX_2025-06...: Ongoing R&D costs Construction and operation of the "Next Generation Process" (NGP) pilot plant Construction of the Demonstration-Scale / FOAK (First-of-a-Kind) industrial facility at Chemelot General working capital As of February 28, 2026, working capital was $39,951,597 and available cash was $39,423,876 ACT:CNX_2026-04..., compared to $8,032,385 working capital at May 31, 2025 — reflecting the material impact of the December 2025 and January 2026 offerings. Bottom Line The dilution is real and is a direct consequence of being a pre-commercial company with growing operational costs and no self-sustaining revenue stream. Each financing round has been tied to advancing the technology toward commercialization — from pilot plant to demonstration scale to FOAK industrial deployment. The share consolidation in August 2024 (3.25:1) was also executed to support the Nasdaq listing ACT:CNX_2025-05..., which itself was intended to broaden the investor base and improve access to U.S. capital markets ACT:CNX_2025-01....

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PSN · long

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Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

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