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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

From X

@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Nice call - 100% agree! Having an exclusive retail partnership with Valvoline may make them even more attractive to a potential buyer now. Did you listen to the CEO speak last week? He know his stuff and they are already winning market share... What also makes this interesting is that not only does a sale to Mavis (who bought Pep Boys) make sense, but so does a piecemeal sale since $MNRO has very distinctive brands in different geographical locations.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Local oil change companies using vendors like Halron which get their supply from Shell are running out of OW-20 (includes Walmart / CostCo). Huge benefit to $MNRO who sources directly from Valvoline through an exclusive retail partnership. Soon places like TiresPlus, etc will have to implement massive price hikes that will drive market share for $MNRO. Really interesting situation especially since Ichan has economic interest of 33% in the company (16% share ownership / 16% swap agreement) and recently sold the inferior Pep Boys for a valuation that would price $MNRO at $25+. Now that Pep Boys has closed - wouldn't be surprised to see $MNRO get an offer very soon especially given their prime opportunity to take advantage of coming motor oil shortage.

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $17B
Stock Thoughts 5 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.3B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $21B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $287B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $287B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

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