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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

If ur reading a write-up and they don't include a valuation range, more often than not: 1) They're lying to themselves. E.g. only pitching bull case. "The next 10x." $GRAB a couple years ago. 2) They're lying to you, the reader. E.g. not focusing on bear case enough. "It's asymmetric"... but actual downside if couple thing flops is 60%+. $FLNC just 2-3 months ago. 3) They have no clue and prob conclude by saying "position as small speculative bet" to be in a win-win scenario to gain subs. $CCXI today... Multiple based valuation is the simple/lazy route and easier to defend, yet less practical. Absolute valuations like DCF or Penman REV forces you to think more through scenarios and the business itself, which is what's actually useful because it's more subjective.

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 5 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.3B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $287B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $287B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

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