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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

The Cable One deal is getting messier by the day. The company had lined up a $1.3bn financing (backed by GTCR) to buy the rest of MBI and pay off its B-4 TL. CoBank then bought ~$90mm of the RCF the day before the deal was set to close (according to Cable One) and sued to block it the next day, claiming cable was insolvent and overpaying. Now a judge has granted a TRO. Bear in mind, all of this is happening while the business keeps shrinking.. $CABO
@convequity

Convequity on X

$TSEM remains one of our highest-conviction holdings, even after we trimmed the position in our 4Q26 rebalance. We wanted to keep Tower at its 6.1% portfolio weight despite a roughly 25% fall in its share price over the past quarter. To make room for new holdings, we trimmed the weight to 4.75% and banked some profits. With SpaceX ($SPCX) also becoming a larger holding, we are limiting further additions to avoid concentrating the portfolio in a few companies. Our confidence in Tower's technology remains strong. We think Tower's competitive advantage comes from combining chips that send and receive data using light with the electronic chips that drive and control them. Next-generation optical connections require these components to exchange more data within a smaller space. Hybrid bonding achieves this by joining the chips through densely packed electrical connections that move large amounts of data in a compact package. In our view, Tower's capabilities here are effectively unmatched among Western suppliers. Tower has also added manufacturing capacity more successfully than we expected. It can fulfill more customer orders itself, leaving less business for $GFS. Customers have less reason to switch to a supplier whose technology they consider weaker when Tower can meet their needs, so the capacity expansion strengthens our Tower thesis and weakens the case for competitors that rely on orders Tower cannot accommodate.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The CEO of Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) expects its third AI patent to be approved within two months, calling the rest “signature paperwork.” Nubeva, a ransomware recovery company, has been granted two of the four AI patents it applied for in 2024. CEO Randy Chou said in his October 5, 2026 interview on Nubeva’s YouTube channel that the patent office had sent an amendment on the third patent that week, which Nubeva plans to accept. The third patent covers detecting “nefarious or improper encryption” inside a binary (a compiled program in machine code), meaning Nubeva can tell when malware is encrypting files, even when the encryption is hidden. Spotting hidden encryption is also what drew AI data labeling companies (firms that turn experts’ knowledge into training data for AI labs) to Nubeva, Chou said. Nubeva hasn’t heard back on the fourth patent. Chou said the patent office told the company that AI patent applications are now taking much longer, with examiners reading filings as long as 150 pages vs. the ~30 pages he typically files (probably because of AI writing the patents). So the fourth patent, the last one Chou wants granted before pursuing a potential partnership or sale, is just a waiting game.

Investor Letters

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $348B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $348B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

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