Saturday, October 31, 2026

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B

John Hempton's Newsletter Oct 31 3 clicks

Oct 31 LITE $83B

Expert Call | Optical Module Ramps, Lumentum vs. Coherent Momentum, Server CPU, and Advanced Packaging Constraints

P Equity Research 1 click

Oct 31 VRRM $505M

Verra veerer

The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

From X

@orrdavid Oct 31 2 clicks

David Orr on X

Even in that case, the stock could do well for many years because earnings growth drives the return. But since it's now crowded, the risk:reward is completely different. $SFM sold more than it would have if it was uncrowded. If hypothetically it was extremey uncrowded, it might not have sold too hard at all. Normally I avoid crowded stocks like that, but that one seemed lower risk ... whoops!

@partners_road Oct 31 1 click

RiverRoadPartners on X

2 wks into Q3 earnings, at least 4 semis flagged back-end constraints ($TXN, $ALGM, $PI, $NXPI), 2 noted customer push outs ($ALGM, $TER), $INTC noted higher memory prices caused demand destruction in PC’s & $LRCX couldn’t guide for upside b/c of a specialty component shortage.

@orrdavid Oct 31 1 click

David Orr on X

@JackFarley96 When $NVDA finally has its big double miss, $SOXX probably drops 25% in a day or two.

@calvinblissett Oct 31

Calvin Blissett on X

$TZOO. Something happened after I posted this. For the second time someone intelligent reached out sharing their thoughts and insists. They were one of the only people to speak to the CEO in the past year. I’d never looked too deeply but it’s been on Joel Greenblatt magic formula for years now. They underwent a significant business model change. I can attest to the value proposition personally because recently I traveled somewhere where they posted a very popular (very good value) deal. AI is not as much of a threat as it may seem and actually is more likely to be a tailwind which I explain. The business model grew through 2008 so I’m not overly concerned about recession risk, and their reports show that 74% of their affluent travel loving customer base would cut travel last. I think the stock can 4x. It reminds me of $BMBL sentiment and accounting wise. Writeup tommrow

@leevalueroach Oct 31 1 click

Lee Roach on X

I went to five different GameStop $GME stores today. Each store got Halloween Pokemon cards and if you came in and said trick-or-treat you got a free pack. All were out of inventory by the mid-morning. One store associate said Pokemon is still insanely hot and all of the cards were taken by adults and not a single kid got one. Wall Street is sleeping on the GameStop turnaround.

@blondesnmoney Oct 31 3 clicks

Cluseau Investments on X

How life feels once you go 85% $RSP 15% $BOXX and check your brokerage account once a month https://t.co/MeMabOtTMX

@TidefallCapital Oct 31 1 click

Trevor Scott on X

@DrewCohenMoney Not short but $APP is reliant on Apple and Google yet also competes with them with high margin ads. App has already been investigated by the SEC and state attorneys, the platforms could take some trivial data misstep & shut it down in the name of privacy and steal the economics.

@leevalueroach Oct 31 1 click

Lee Roach on X

@rubicon59 Would love to chat on $APP and various other DSPs. DM if you are open to it.

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $16B

Stock Thoughts Oct 31 4 clicks

Life360 ($LIF): The Family App Wall Street Fell Out of Love With

Life360 has fallen 60% despite 40% revenue growth, 100 million monthly users and profitability, as its family-safety subscriptions and…

LIF $3.6B

Substack von Philipp Oct 31 3 clicks

American Tower's Starlink Opportunity

American Tower could gain $1.13 to $3.54 in AFFO per share if Starlink accesses 80,000 U.S. cell sites and becomes a fourth major tenant.

AMT $88B

Dane Bowler Oct 30 3 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 3 clicks

AstraZeneca (AZN) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

AstraZeneca reported $16.2 billion Q3 revenue, up 7%, as oncology grew 17% and Farxiga fell 25% after US generics.

AZN $270B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 2 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 1 click

Bloom: Chinese Scandium Supply Route Restarts

Bloom may have reopened imports of scandium-containing components from China to the United States, according to new trade data.

BE $67B

Hunterbrook Oct 30 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23BADT $7.2B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 30 1 click

Wall Street Erased $16 Billion From a Legal Monopoly Over an AI Myth.

Verisk Analytics’ 40 petabytes of proprietary insurance data and regulatory infrastructure shield its underwriting business from generative…

VRSK $26B

First Strike Research Oct 30 7 clicks

Tango: Upgrading 'Buy' Based On ESMO 2026 Vopimetostat PDAC Data And Pathway Advancement Clarity

Tango Therapeutics reported an 82% response rate and 88% nine-month PFS for vopimetostat plus RASONQUE in RAS-mutant pancreatic cancer,…

TNGX $3.9B

Terry Chrisomalis Oct 30 2 clicks

KMBIF · long

Kambi Group PLC

Kambi’s B2B sportsbook platform thesis centers on four major customers: DraftKings, Penn, 888 and Kindred.

KMBIF $408M

Value Investors Club Jul 19 4 clicks

Expert Call | Nebius

Nebius’s 1 GW annual active-capacity target from 2027 is realistic, according to a former product manager, with greenfield data centers…

NBIS $42B

P Equity Research Oct 12 5 clicks

The Final Phase of This Bull Market Will Be Massive | Charles Lemonides

Charles Lemonides argues the 18-year bull market has not reached its late-stage liftoff, pairing value-oriented semiconductor longs with…

INTC $348BLYFT $6.2B

The Monetary Matters Network Oct 12 9 clicks

Bristlemoon September 2026 Quarterly Letter

Bristlemoon Global Fund lost 8.4% in the September quarter and added shorts in Campbell’s, REA Group, MasterBrand and Polaris amid narrow…

CPB $6.2BMBC $1.5B

Bristlemoon Capital Oct 12 13 clicks

Dell's Tailwinds

Dell booked $131.7B of AI server orders in four quarters and held a $95B backlog as enterprise AI demand accelerates.

DELL $302B

Chipstrat Oct 12 4 clicks

Quick Value #334 - Flowers Foods (FLO)

Flowers Foods trades at 7.5x earnings after an 80% decline, as a 50% dividend cut and potential asset sale aim to reduce leverage following…

FLO $1.3B

Value Don't Lie Oct 12 10 clicks

Q3 2026 Jenga IP Quarterly Letter

Jenga Global Master Fund returned 8.10% in Q3 2026, added Adobe and Mexican airports, and later initiated S&P Global.

ADBE $97B

Global Outperformers Oct 12 3 clicks

Howmet Aerospace: Strong Q2, But The Valuation Is Too Rich

Howmet Aerospace posted 24% Q2 revenue growth and 46% adjusted EPS growth, but HWM trades about 87% above a $120.69 DCF fair-value estimate.

HWM $80B

Alexander I. Velasquez Oct 12 2 clicks

LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a…

LQDA $4BUTHR $26B

Trade Ideas Flow Oct 12 5 clicks

Global-e: The Invisible Engine Behind the Brands You Buy From Directly Online! $GLBE

Global-e provides cross-border merchant-of-record, payments, tax and fulfillment services to more than 1,500 brands, including Shopify…

GLBE $7.2B

Substack von Philipp Oct 12 6 clicks

Saturday, October 31, 2026

David Orr on X

RiverRoadPartners on X

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