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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

BWX Technologies’ $BWXT commercial segment grew Q2 2026 revenue 72% to $302.5M, while its government segment grew just 2% to $601.3M. $BWXT reported Q2 2026 on August 3, and CEO Rex Geveden called it “another strong quarter characterized by excellent execution across the company”: → Revenue: $901.6M, up 18% y/y (9% organic). → Adjusted EBITDA: $155.5M, up 7%, a 17.2% margin vs. 19.1%. The government segment fell 5% to $126.5M, but grew 22.1% excluding a $29.4M one-time contract gain in Q2 2025, while the commercial segment more than doubled to $36.1M. → EPS: $0.97 GAAP (+14%) and $1.07 non-GAAP (+5%). → FCF: $115.0M, down 9%, as capex rose 27% to $41.4M. → Backlog: $8.4B, up 40% y/y, including $2.26B of government contracts not yet funded by Congress. Q2 bookings were $648.9M vs. $1,640.5M a year earlier, but over the past 12 months, new orders still ran 1.7x revenue. The 2026 guide now calls for $3.8B of revenue, $662-672M of adjusted EBITDA (a 17.5% margin), $4.70-4.80 of non-GAAP EPS, and $345-360M of FCF. In August, $BWXT also changed its guidance for both segments: 1) Government Operations: Lower revenue growth (high single digits, down from low teens) but a higher margin (20.5%, up from 19% at the start of 2026). CFO Mike Fitzgerald said on the Q2 call that high-purity depleted uranium (HPDU) costs are coming in under budget. Most of the segment’s contracts pay $BWXT its costs plus a fee, and the fee goes up when $BWXT spends less than the target cost, so lower HPDU costs mean less revenue but more profit. 2) Commercial Operations: Higher revenue growth (45%, up from 30%), with Precision Components Group (PCG), acquired July 1, adding slightly more than half of the increase, but a lower margin (13%, down from 14%) as $BWXT spends on U.S. capacity and new hires.

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CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $348B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $348B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

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