Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria 2 clicks

Asif Suria on X

The empire building at the Honeywell spinoff Solstice $SOLS came to an abrupt stop even before it started. In a highly unusual move, Solstice and Element Solutions $ESI decided to call off their merger. What makes this move particularly unusual is that neither party will have to pay a termination fee. In the words of Solstice Chairman Rajeev Gautam: "Following conversations with our shareholders and discussions between the parties, both Boards unanimously believe that it is in the best interests of our respective shareholders, employees and customers to terminate the merger agreement" The spread on this deal was as high as 9.13% at the end of last month. Solstice was up after hours yesterday on this news and is likely to post gains during the regular trading session today not just because shareholders are relieved this merger is over. Considering this was a cash plus stock deal with a majority of the payout in stock of Solstice, any arbs that want to unwind this trade will now have to buy shares of Solstice to close out the short leg of their merger arbitrage trade. This is one of the reasons I avoid "all stock" or "cash plus stock deals". You could end up getting hit on both sides of the trade when the stock of the target drops and the stock of the acquiring company spikes on deal termination. In this case, the premium paid for $ESI was about 15% and instead of the stock going up when the deal was announced, it actually fell due to the big drop in Solstice's stock. So we might not see a large drop in Element Solutions and it is possible it might even go up.

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CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.3B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $287B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $287B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $33B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

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