When the liquidity does not add up
Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.
Saturday, October 31, 2026
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From X
Barbarian Capital on X
Avis Wipeout Erases Last Vestige of 600% Short Squeeze Rally $CAR https://t.co/5YhPTjmIi0
A Capital on X
@leevalueroach Also potential Democratic control of the House will be bad for $GEO / $CXW
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X
Dear MF gps, Looking for feedback on Walker and Dunlop $WD How are they as underwriters? How much if that 21/22 toxic vintage of Sunbelt MF with floating rate debt did they underwrite? Any views on the quality of their book? How is their servicing? Stock looks very interesting here
Tim Eriksen on X
Cedar Creek Partners Q3 Letter released. Up 6.5% in Q3, 19.9% YTD, net of fees and expenses. $SODI $EXCE $HRBR $EVRC $PAWH $MMTMF $MMY.V https://t.co/d794sYsHAT
Lee Roach on X
One dollar for a dozen eggs. $CALM earnings going to suck. https://t.co/sFc8Mf4Odw
absreturnchaser on X
@essential6t7 @ChopraUSA Wonder if $WU Western Union tries to get out of the deal because they have received takeover offers themselves. @bharringtonw11
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X
What's your favorite 2026 Tax Loss selling candidate for 2027 recovery? For me: Basically my entire REIT book probably all have the best torque $ARE $LINE $NXRT
JabroniCoin.USD on X
Latest $CENX 10-Q shows in addition to the 6.8% non-dilutive equity interest, Century Aluminum has a $300m put option on Hawesville written by $WULF https://t.co/pacdDPV8y4
Investor Letters
All letters- Curreen Capital July–September 2026 CLVT $1.1BAAP $2.9B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q3 2026 OCTV $5.8BCALY $2.7B
- East 72 Period to 30 September 2026 AVOL $8.3BFCODF $4.5B
- Broyhill Asset Management third quarter 2026 MFP $1.9BVVV $4.1B
- Alluvial Capital Management Third Quarter 2026 BSVN $565MGDOT $703M
- 1 Main Capital third quarter 2026 BFIT $2.1BHGV $3B
- Polaris Capital Management Third Quarter 2026 G $6.6BLKQ $5B
- Langdon Equity Partners Q3 2026 LOECF $760MATS $1.9B
TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)
Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.
Tango: Upgrading 'Buy' Based On ESMO 2026 Vopimetostat PDAC Data And Pathway Advancement Clarity
Tango Therapeutics reported an 82% response rate and 88% nine-month PFS for vopimetostat plus RASONQUE in RAS-mutant pancreatic cancer,…
Terry Chrisomalis 2 clicks
Build-A-Bear (BBW) Part II: The Scion Capital Analyst Tempate and the All Map
Build-A-Bear’s lease overhaul, off-mall expansion and partner-led wholesale growth reshaped a debt-free retailer with $80 million EBITDA,…
This Week in Special Situations: Mattel, Winnebago, PayPal
Mattel, Winnebago and PayPal lead 37 special situations spanning activist campaigns, buybacks, M&A and strategic alternatives.
Kratos: Strong Organic Growth And Production Ramp-Ups Support A Buy Rating
Kratos posted Q2 FY2026 revenue growth of 30.5% to $458.8 million as unmanned systems, propulsion and defense-electronics production ramps…
Arizona Equity Research 
Group 1 Automotive (GPI): Q3 2026 Earnings
Group 1 Automotive trades at 5.5 times earnings as aging gasoline vehicles and EV repairs sustain service profits; insiders bought while…
Daktronics (DAKT): Dominant Leader | Deep Dive
Daktronics, the leader in U.S. sports video boards, targets 10-12% EBIT margins after shifting production to China and Mexico and exiting…
Alexandria Real Estate: Market Sees Declining Occupancy, I See Early Recovery Signs (Rating Downgrade)
Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) faces lease expirations and occupancy pressure through 2028, but leasing momentum supports a projected…
Luuk Wierenga 
Enova International (ENVA): Leading US Online lender with excellent track record
Enova’s Q3 2026 revenue exceeded $1 billion as originations rose 31%, while its failed Grasshopper Bank bid drove a 23% one-day stock…
Innodata responds, Amkor surges, Mega Tech spending on tap
Innodata shares fell 25% to $44.74 after India Today reported 550 job cuts in India.
PSN · long Parsons CORP
Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.
AppFolio 3Q26 Business Recap: AI Agents Support Growth
AppFolio grew third-quarter revenue 19% as Realm-X AI agents gained adoption, lifting guidance to $1.122 billion to $1.127 billion.
TTM Technologies: The Market Already Caught On To Peak Numbers
TTM Technologies’ record Q3 and data-center exposure drove a 27.7% stock drop as investors questioned debt-funded growth, leverage and the…
Nicolas Bolsinger 1 click
Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXXIII
Monte Investments updates Carpenter Technology after a 25% sell-off, tracks EQT’s $12.83 billion Range Resources acquisition and assesses…
The Data Center Bridge
Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed…
Lula wins, Brazil panics, then rallies. It’s happened every time. A 16% ROE bank at 7.4x earnings and book value, down 36% in a day. Up to 3.8x
A Brazilian digital bank with 45 million clients fell 36% after Lula’s election, despite 16.3% ROE, 13 record quarters and a 7.4x earnings…
Build-A-Bear Workshop: The Price Assumes Its Worst Quarter Lasts Forever
Build-A-Bear Workshop’s failed pre-made toy line compressed margins, but resilient children’s sales support a $39.39 fair value estimate…
Rafa F. Oliver, CFA 4 clicks
Molina & Kinsale
Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…
Duolingo: The 2027 Bull Case Is Hidden In The Monetization Switch
Duolingo sacrificed over $50 million of 2026 bookings to reduce free-app friction, reaccelerate daily users and target 100 million DAUs by…
Geneva Investor 4 clicks
How to Read a 10-K Like a Short Seller
A four-layer 10-K framework tests revenue timing, receivables, reserves and depreciation against cash flow, using Hertz’s 2012-14…
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