Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@BrokenMoats 2 clicks

Broken Moats on X

$CHRW shareholders not buying. Incredible amount of uncertainty in brokerage and how that will look in a few years from litigation impacts on costs (insurance and liability) and AI on margins/take rates. It is a phenomenal deal for $QXO shareholders as they get to exit at cyclical high pricing into incredible uncertainty. (why CHRW down) Also in your multiple assessment above, you need to consider a whole bunch more factors than putting a multiple on a several year out synergy target number (1 chew trading under 20x forward 27' numbers), Ch share count will increase 16%+ (for accretion/dilution scenerios), debt costs will significantly increase (that is stripped out of there) as well as all the severance and integration costs they will incur in the next few years. This deal is quite risky in my opinion. I Also as someone in your shoes knows covering the industry for years, the history of Brokerage acquisitions paying off is quite poor (just see QXO's Coyote acquisition a few years ago)
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The CEO of Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) owns 25.4% of the shares, and a 12% holder keeps buying more. Investing in Nubeva largely means trusting Randy Chou. He’s been CEO since the 2018 listing and sits on the board. Per the company’s site, he built SSL (web encryption) security at Alteon WebSystems, which Nortel bought for $7.8B in 2000. He then joined the founding team at Aruba Networks, a Wi-Fi company started in 2002 that HP $HPQ bought for $3.0B in 2015. In 2008, he co-founded Panzura, a cloud storage company that private equity firm Profile Capital Management bought in May 2020 for $225M, per Nubeva’s July 2023 investor deck. Granted, Panzura replaced him as CEO with Patrick Harr in May 2016, a month after Nubeva was incorporated, and the sale came four years later under Harr. Regardless, every company Chou helped build before Nubeva ended in a sale, and a partnership or sale is Nubeva’s own fallback if AI doesn’t fix its costs. Canadian insiders report their trades on SEDI, and Nubeva’s file since January 2024 has one active buyer. Clayton Davis, an Edmonton-based individual investor, crossed 10% on September 8, 2025 with 7,038,268 shares (10.03%), per the Form 62-103F1 he filed a year later, on September 10, 2026 (the disclosure Canada requires from anyone who crosses 10%). He then made 96 open-market purchases on 46 trading days through September 4, 2026, buying 1,755,797 shares for ~CAD$306K at CAD$0.09-0.26. Net of four small sales totaling 134,500 shares, he now holds 8,659,565 shares (12.34%). Davis’s latest purchase, on September 4, came a week after Nubeva filed its FY2026 results. In other words, he kept buying after seeing the full-year numbers. Chou hasn’t bought or sold in the open market over the same period, and Nubeva’s annual meeting filings list the same 17,797,741 shares for him in 2024, 2025, and 2026. In April 2024, Chou moved 3,630,000 of those shares into a donor-advised fund he still controls, and in a February 26, 2026 interview on Nubeva’s YouTube channel, he said he’d have to pre-announce any sale by the fund.

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B
Value Investors Club

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $13B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

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