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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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Fajasy on X

Bernstein expects copper to run short from 2027, and the IEA says a new copper mine takes ~17 years to go from discovery to production. So I found a miner restarting old ones, with a CEO who restarted its flagship once before and says it could produce 2-3x today’s output. Its restart study is due in the first half of October, and a much richer discovery at the same mine isn’t in the study yet. That company is Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU), a copper miner in Sudbury, Ontario. After more than a century of mining, Sudbury has plenty of past-producing mines to restart. Per Magna’s September deck, Brazil’s Vale $VALE and Switzerland’s Glencore $GLNCY are the only other companies with significant property holdings in the Sudbury Basin, and they run the district’s two mills and two smelters. Magna has agreements to sell its ore to both, so its next restarts don’t need a new mill. Magna’s stock trades at CAD$2.45/share, down 9% y/y and 38% below its CAD$3.94 intraday high on January 29, 2026. Counting its convertible notes, in-the-money options, and share units as shares, and netting out its cash plus the ~US$5.1M from exercising the options, enterprise value is ~US$454M. That buys you McCreedy West, the producing mine that carried Magna to its first quarter of positive free cash flow (FCF) in Q2 2026. You also get Levack and Crean Hill, two past-producing mines with a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) and a pre-feasibility study (PFS), respectively, due in the first half of October. Notably, Magna’s leaders have run McCreedy West and Levack before. Both mines belonged to FNX Mining, a Canadian miner, before they passed to KGHM $KGHPF, the Polish copper giant that sold them to Magna. CEO Jason Jessup led the FNX team that restarted Levack, and chair Vern Baker was FNX’s VP of Operations. Jessup also says Magna doesn’t plan any more financings after Alpayana, a Peruvian mining group, invested US$99M in August. So Magna could triple or quadruple its output (McCreedy West plus 2-3x from Levack) without raising more money, and R2, the high-grade zone it found at Levack, would come on top of whatever the PEA shows. The question is whether CAD$2.45 is an early price for a multi-mine Sudbury producer, or a price that already assumes Levack restarts well before its numbers are public.
@MaiusPartners 2 clicks

Maius on X

Some $PSIX thoughts off the recent 8-K: The banking syndicate lifted committed capacity from $135m to $220m (+$85m), cut the SOFR margin from +2.60% to +1.80%, and pushed maturity from July 2027 to September 2029 (~26 months). Credit committees are structurally risk-averse. More exposure, less spread, and longer tenor only clears if they like the repayment case. So what are they underwriting that most equity investors still won’t touch? Two things the disclosures imply: 1) Weichai’s North American strategy is locked in. Change-of-control remains tied to Weichai keeping board control and ≥40% ownership (same economic threshold as before). The extension removes left-tail risk that Weichai pursues a different go-to-market path. 2) The extra capacity isn’t for today’s balance sheet. Net debt was essentially zero at Q2’26 (cash ~$70m, debt ~$73m). The new investor materials flag Prime Power as a deliverable for the first time—ranges that overlap $INIO’s data-center gas engines, a segment where $INIO recently highlighted as an area "Chinese players have historically struggled to break in" and hence command "100% market share in several datacenter power ranges". As Bezos put it: your margin is my opportunity. Have a great weekend, everybody!

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $12B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

My Last GFL Update - Hopefully

GFL’s take-private structure hinges on BC Partners rolling 60% of its stake to preserve debt portability under the 40% permitted-holder…

GFL $16B
310 Value’s Newsletter 5 clicks

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