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@convequity

Convequity on X

We own both $ONTO and $CAMT because they sell overlapping tools to different HBM makers, and we raised Onto while holding Camtek. In our 4Q26 portfolio rebalance we increased Onto in our portfolio and held Camtek unchanged. Inspection identifies defects. Metrology measures dimensions and material properties to check that manufacturing meets specifications. Both companies sell inspection and metrology tools for HBM and advanced packaging, but their customer exposure differs. Onto is more closely tied to SK hynix's capital-spending plans. Our industry information identifies Camtek as a preferred supplier for Samsung's HBM production lines, and Samsung is investing aggressively to catch up with SK hynix in HBM. Camtek is smaller and more specialized, and we see a technical edge in selected HBM applications. Onto also sells chip-fabrication metrology and packaging lithography, which Camtek does not offer. We raised Onto because increasingly complex chip designs give customers reasons to keep investing beyond the current packaging recovery. We hold Camtek as the more focused advanced-packaging investment.
@StableBread 3 clicks

Fajasy on X

How much of the $8.4B backlog at BWX Technologies $BWXT turns into revenue by the end of 2027? $BWXT expects to recognize 55% of the $8.4B backlog, or ~$4.6B, by the end of 2027. Another $1.4B of unexercised contract options sit outside the backlog, with $900M expected to be awarded in 2030 and $500M in 2035. Three items drive $BWXT’s quarterly FCF swings: 1) Payables: Higher accounts payable added $71.4M to H1 2026’s $249.0M of operating cash flow, vs. $6.9M a year earlier. The 10-Q credits the cash flow increase mainly to the timing of vendor payments, customer billings, and project cash flows, which can reverse in later quarters. 2) Seasonality: Retainages (payments withheld on the government segment’s fixed-price incentive contracts until set conditions are met) build in Q1 and Q3, with larger payments in Q2 and Q4. 3) Equity income: $BWXT’s share of the profit from the joint ventures that manage 14 government nuclear sites, including Savannah River and Pantex, comes in as equity income, now $80M/year. It counts toward adjusted EBITDA (15.7% of Q2’s $155.5M), but $BWXT only gets the cash when the joint ventures pay dividends. That’s why I’d judge $BWXT’s FCF on the full year, not the quarter.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$CCLD. Image 1 shows a 2.82x MOIC in 5 years with the same multiple 8x and paltry EBITDA growth, basically without acquisition. One of those two variables would have to give. EBITDA growth of 16% over 5 years is highly conservative especially if they gain momentum as a AI beneficiary or just continue acquiring. 8x EBITDA is conservative as well, this is versus peer sets transacting at a median of 13.6x (Image 2) and 18.6x (Image 3). @R1RCM @Waystar @trubridge @CorroHealth @IKSHealth

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $129M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $12B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks
RYZ · long

Ryerson Holding CORP

Ryerson Holding (RYZ) is a long position following its all-stock merger with Olympic Steel, at 1.7105 RYZ shares per Olympic Steel share.

RYZ $1.7B
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