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Friday, October 30, 2026

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@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

$BSP lockup comes right at the end of the year....might want to file that date away, and go read the S1. Difficult to find a more flawed business model and aggregios valuation then this. It is Upland reincarnated and perhaps Valeant if they start getting dodgy on their receivables as financing starts drying up. BSP business is simply a game of removing almost all costs of broken, zombie software companies (bring r&d to near zero, remove a bulk of the employees, jack the price to any residual customers, report improved metrics, do not report the metrics you do not want to show (stopped reporting NRR, other metrics post IPO). An Italian based rollup of a collection of 2012 point solutions (Vimeo, Brightcove, Eventbrite, AOL (yes that AOL), and a bunch of others that were failed investments on their own right and in decline. Very little in shared synergies. The cadence of deals and size of deals has been dramatically increasing since 2003 (as you would expect). sub 300m in 2023, 800m in 2024, 2B in 2025, and already at 4B for 2026. This law of large numbers will continue to have to scale to continue to be able to show the financial wizardly of improved adjusted profits. Because as the cohorts exhaust the initial boost from price increases and cost cuts the businesses start more aggressively shedding their customer base (increasing the melt of the ice cube), so before these metrics infect their financials they need new deals to over run the melt (not a coincidence deal flow is faster and bigger). And thats the game, the equity price (and future dilution a certainty) (as they are around 6-7B net debt once they close their recent acquisition, this is post the ipo raise too). Once/if the story, law of numbers cannot run anymore to the right with financing, the gig will be up. Plenty of prior versions of this exact model as predecessors just go look at Upland software $UPLD. Won't end well but weird float dynamics with the A shares, IPO, lockup (12/28) and the aggressiveness of software/semi currently that is squeezing lots of more obvious AI disrupted software vendors, so its obvious where their ends up ultimately but might be treacherous on its path there, certainly tough until the float increases to short. Should be fun to watch, and an opportunity once liquidity opens up
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

For $CASY, let's say it grows earnings roughly 6% on average for the next 20 years, then 3% terminally. Maybe its 9% for the next 5 years, but gradually moves toward something like maturity of 3%, average let's say is 6%. What multiple would you currently pay on that earnings stream? Personally, i would pay no more than 25x for this. Add other considerations to the business, maybe you think it will grow faster or longer, adjust your multiple as you prefer.

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $12B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

My Last GFL Update - Hopefully

GFL’s take-private structure hinges on BC Partners rolling 60% of its stake to preserve debt portability under the 40% permitted-holder…

GFL $16B
310 Value’s Newsletter 5 clicks

Are Neoclouds Dead?

Neoclouds face tighter debt financing as AI infrastructure capex outruns cash flow, leaving cash-burning GPU providers more exposed than…

NBIS $42B
Daniel Romero 9 clicks

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