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Thursday, October 29, 2026

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

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@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Semafor out with a hitpiece on private credit. They lump the loans together without explaining one is senior and one is junior (both are first lien). But that's beyond the point. $FSK has a 1L loan to a distressed company marked at 98 cents (for reference, TCPC has it at 86 cents). Whatever, fine. And on the same company's JUNIOR tranche 1L debt? They have it marked at 10 cents. Both loans are PIK, already restructured once, and the equity is marked at ZERO. How do you justify a 98 cent mark on a company likely headed for bankruptcy, while simultaneously marking your junior debt at 10 cents? C'mon! Imagine this in public credit markets? This is the kind of shenanigans which makes no one trust PC marks.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

At ~$6.8M net of cash, Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) trades below every one of the five small ransomware-security deals I found with a disclosed price. That’s a CAD$13.0M market cap at CAD$0.185/share (70,173,783 × CAD$0.185), or $9.3M at 1.40 USD/CAD, with the $2.49M of cash and $12,262 of debt netted out. The $6.8M buys two granted patents, two pending applications, the unfinished AI decryptor builder, and a deployment agreement with what Nubeva calls a top-10 global bank, on $500,586 of FY2026 revenue. Here’s what larger security firms paid for five small companies that detect, stop, or recover from ransomware, per the buyers’ filings: → Smokescreen (June 2021): Zscaler $ZS paid ~$11.7M in cash for a startup that plants decoys to catch attackers. → TrapX Security (January 2022): Commvault $CVLT paid $18.65M in cash for an Israeli decoy-technology company. → Minerva Labs (March 2023): Rapid7 $RPD paid $34.6M for a 14-person Israeli startup selling anti-evasion and ransomware-prevention software. → Appranix (April 2024): Commvault paid $26.27M in cash and stock for a Boston startup that cuts the time to rebuild cloud applications after an attack. → Airgap Networks (April 2024): Zscaler paid $124.4M for an “early-stage” network-security company whose product it called a “ransomware kill switch.” For context, Commvault bought TrapX and Appranix as product lines already bringing in ~$3.2M and ~$2.4M a year. Rapid7 and Zscaler bought Minerva Labs and Airgap mainly for their technology. A buyer would be paying for Nubeva’s technology too, meaning four AI patents (assuming the last two come through), the key-capture agent, and a top-10 bank as a reference account (if the license customer renewed), not just ~$500K of revenue. Still, Nubeva’s revenue is a fifth or less of what TrapX and Appranix brought in, and 82% of its revenue comes from two customers, one of which may not have renewed. So I’d put a sale at the low end of these deals, $12-19M (Smokescreen to TrapX), or CAD$0.23-0.37/share, 1.3-2.0x from here. The ~$26M median (2.8x) is the more bullish upside case. If nothing works, two more years of burn leave $0.93-1.29M of cash, and adding the two granted patents and what’s left of the business gets shareholders $1.33-2.01M, or CAD$0.03-0.04/share, a 78-86% loss from CAD$0.185. In other words, CAD$0.185 sits ~45% of the way between the CAD$0.03-0.04 floor and a TrapX-size sale (CAD$0.37/share). If those are the only two outcomes, the market is pricing a sale as close to a coin flip.

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CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $13B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

ServiceNow Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

ServiceNow’s Q3 revenue rose 20.5% to $4.11 billion, while non-GAAP EPS missed consensus and fourth-quarter cRPO growth guidance slowed to…

NOW $110B
Cestrian Capital Research 2 clicks

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $129M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

Meta: A Clearer Roadmap

Meta's non-cancelable commitments reached $455 billion as FY26 capex approaches $140 billion, driving expense growth and 700-basis-point…

META $1.6T
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

Why So Much Copper?

Amphenol and other copper-connectivity suppliers benefit as copper remains essential inside AI racks, where low-voltage, high-current power…

APH $196B
Jimmy's Journal 3 clicks

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