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Thursday, October 29, 2026

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

From X

@Mr_Neutral_Man

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

I have consistently talked about buying $CUBE in the past year and highlighted their incredible NYC/NNJ portfolio It accounts for 1/4 of the company's NOI, up 5.5% in Q3 on a YOY basis. Moves the needle. Overall NOI up 2.1% YOY High barrier, no rent regs like housing, truly a great asset NOI declines mostly in Sunbelt high supply markets Story is as old as time Bought at a rough 6.7% cap about a year ago at $36 ish now $41.08 plus about $2.12 in dividends since Not too shabby for a 20% one year return for buying a high quality SS with low leverage
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” CUBE $9.9B
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

We wouldn’t be surprised to see GPU rental revenue reach $100bn per gigawatt a year. Nebius ($NBIS) has already reported a short-term deal in the $40m–$50m per MW annualised range. That is $40bn–$50bn per GW. Likewise for Space $SPCX and others while $CRWV sold its long term capacity too early at low prices. Use 660,000 Blackwell GPUs as a simplified 1GW case. With every GPU-hour rented: • $50bn a year = $8.65 per GPU-hour. • $100bn a year = $17.30 per GPU-hour. DeepSeek reports $38 of API revenue per GPU-hour at off-peak prices for a V4.1 Flash cluster. Peak tariffs are double. Serving the same workload at those prices would imply $76 per GPU-hour. For an inference provider that can reproduce those economics on rented hardware, a move from $5–$6 rent to $9 can still be affordable. Even roughly $18 need not make the service uneconomic. Suppose another provider achieves 70% of that $38–$76 revenue benchmark across its rented GPU-hours. That gives $26.60–$53.20 of revenue per hour. After $18 of GPU rent, $8.60–$35.20 remains for other costs and profit. The condition is matching DeepSeek’s serving efficiency on the rented hardware and sustaining paid demand at those token prices. Releasing the inference code does not guarantee either. For operators that can do this, we think there is room to keep bidding up scarce GPU capacity, even at twice today’s roughly $9 hourly rate.

Investor Letters

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ENS · short

Enersys

EnerSys faces a short thesis as data-center and warehouse vehicle customers shift from lead-acid batteries to lithium-ion.

ENS $5.8B
Value Investors Club

Adobe Business History

Adobe built PostScript, Photoshop and PDF into desktop-publishing standards, using free Acrobat Reader and integrated Creative Suite tools…

ADBE $96B
Speedwell Memos 1 click

Deep Dive: XPEL

XPEL sells paint-protection film and DAP cutting software, using 90,000-plus vehicle templates to win share from 3M and Eastman.

XPEL $1.3B
Rebound Capital 1 click

Cerebras June 2026 Earnings

Cerebras faces shareholder criticism over $700,000 to $850,000 WSE-3 rack pricing, alleged packaging-yield losses and SRAM-based KV-cache…

CBRS $24B
Irrational Analysis

Wix: More Pain (Ticker: WIX)

Wix cut 2026 bookings guidance by $50 million and revenue by $25 million after layoffs and weaker agency-partner demand, deepening scrutiny…

WIX $3.2B
Emerging Moats Research

Precision AI

Adobe’s licensed vector data, corporate workflow integration and compliance framework could give it an edge in precision AI as frontier…

ADBE $96B
Bearstone

Intuit deep dive

Intuit’s investment case turns on whether AI strengthens or weakens QuickBooks and TurboTax moats across SMB accounting, payroll, payments…

INTU $89B
Global Outperformers

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