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Thursday, October 29, 2026

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

From X

@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

$UMC's nearer-term driver is its 12nm process with $INTC, and our longer-term view is that logic folding could make chips on its existing processes faster and more energy-efficient. UMC reports Q3 earnings tomorrow, while production is targeted for 2027 at Intel's Arizona factories. The partnership combines UMC's foundry experience with Intel's manufacturing capacity, giving UMC access to U.S. production without building an American factory. The immediate attraction is winning customers and expanding its business. Folding replaces long horizontal connections with shorter vertical ones, so signals need less time and energy to move. That could make chips built on established processes more capable without matching the newest transistor nodes. Older processes are, in our view, a more manageable starting point for this prospective thesis: UMC would still need to solve bonding, heat removal and reliable production, but it would not also be introducing a new transistor process.
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

A solar manufacturer that grew revenue 141.5% in 2025 now trades at 2.0x TTM earnings, after falling 77.5% from its June peak. U.S. customs (CBP) has been detaining its Ethiopian cells since May, and Commerce is deciding whether they should pay the duties on Chinese cells, with a first ruling due around December 14. That company is TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO, now at $3.83/share. $TOYO’s closest comps are four other listed solar manufacturers selling into the U.S., and all four are down from their 2026 highs too, as of the October 26 close: → First Solar $FSLR: Down 47.2% to $168.15/share. → Canadian Solar $CSIQ: Down 65.2% to $8.85/share. → JinkoSolar $JKS: Down 72.7% to $8.17/share. → T1 Energy $TE: Down 82.4% to $2.12/share. Only $TE has fallen further from its 2026 high. Besides CBP’s detentions and the Ethiopia inquiry, four more overhangs landed after the June peak: 1) Discounted stock sale: $TOYO sold $50M of stock and warrants at $11.00 on June 24, a 14.9% discount to the prior close, and the stock fell 38.8% that day to $7.91. 2) New tariff: An August 6 proclamation set a 15% U.S. tariff on imported solar cells and panels, including $TOYO’s cells from Ethiopia, starting December 4. 3) Guidance dropped: $TOYO didn’t reaffirm its 2026 targets with its H1 results on August 19, when the stock fell 24.2%, and on September 28 only said it expects positive EBITDA for H2 2026. 4) Parent delisted: The Tokyo Stock Exchange delisted Abalance, the Japanese group that controls $TOYO, on September 26. Still, $TOYO is profitable and has net cash: → Earnings: $156.4M of TTM EBITDA and $80.5M of TTM net income. → Cash flow: $61.4M from operations in H1 2026, less $27.8M of capex, for $33.7M of FCF. → Balance sheet: Went from a going-concern warning to positive working capital in six months, with $26.4M of net cash as of June 30. → Texas: Doubled its Texas module capacity to 2 GW and signed ~$240M of binding module contracts since mid-June. → Tax credits: Management expects $140M/year of U.S. manufacturing tax credits at full Texas output, 85.6% of $TOYO’s market cap, and leaves those credits out of its forecasts. $TOYO’s EV of $137.2M is just 0.9x its TTM EBITDA. So is $TOYO a profitable non-Chinese cell maker on sale, or is the market right that Ethiopia’s U.S. sales won’t last?
@aleabitoreddit 3 clicks

Serenity on X

I made a new “It’s All Over” portfolio today of even higher beta names than $AAOI. The requirements: 1. Fell off a cliff 2. Lower than when they announced their catalysts 3. Increasing fundamentals 4. Looks like the chart 5. Short interest spiking Stuff like $ALMU at $7, $CIFR at $8, $ASTS at $39, and some Leopold trades like $TE at $2.5, $SHAZ at $25. Not a recommendation, just curious how this performs into year end while doomposts are everywhere. Anyone got any other ones?
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Anthropic also had three run-ins with the U.S. government in 2026: 1) On February 27, the President ordered federal agencies to stop using Anthropic's models, and the Department of War designated the company a supply-chain risk to national security. Anthropic largely won its district court case, but lost a separate 2-1 ruling at the D.C. Circuit on September 25, 2026, and has asked the full court to rehear the case. 2) In June, Anthropic disabled its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for all customers when the Commerce Department restricted their export worldwide (since lifted). 3) In October, the FTC sent Anthropic a civil investigative demand (a formal request for information) on its consumer protection, data protection, and privacy practices, and the safety and security of its products. Anthropic also still owed $1.2B of its $1.5B Bartz settlement with book authors as of June 30, 2026, and faces training-data suits from music publishers, Canadian authors and news publishers, and Reddit $RDDT.

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My Last GFL Update - Hopefully

GFL’s take-private structure hinges on BC Partners rolling 60% of its stake to preserve debt portability under the 40% permitted-holder…

GFL $16B
310 Value’s Newsletter 5 clicks

Are Neoclouds Dead?

Neoclouds face tighter debt financing as AI infrastructure capex outruns cash flow, leaving cash-burning GPU providers more exposed than…

NBIS $46B
Daniel Romero 9 clicks

Reddit: Deep Dive Analysis

Reddit generated $805 million in Q2 2026 revenue, 95% from ads, but slowing Google search referrals expose AI-driven traffic and…

RDDT $26B
Hated Moats 6 clicks

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