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Thursday, October 29, 2026

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

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@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

We wouldn’t be surprised to see GPU rental revenue reach $100bn per gigawatt a year. Nebius ($NBIS) has already reported a short-term deal in the $40m–$50m per MW annualised range. That is $40bn–$50bn per GW. Likewise for Space $SPCX and others while $CRWV sold its long term capacity too early at low prices. Use 660,000 Blackwell GPUs as a simplified 1GW case. With every GPU-hour rented: • $50bn a year = $8.65 per GPU-hour. • $100bn a year = $17.30 per GPU-hour. DeepSeek reports $38 of API revenue per GPU-hour at off-peak prices for a V4.1 Flash cluster. Peak tariffs are double. Serving the same workload at those prices would imply $76 per GPU-hour. For an inference provider that can reproduce those economics on rented hardware, a move from $5–$6 rent to $9 can still be affordable. Even roughly $18 need not make the service uneconomic. Suppose another provider achieves 70% of that $38–$76 revenue benchmark across its rented GPU-hours. That gives $26.60–$53.20 of revenue per hour. After $18 of GPU rent, $8.60–$35.20 remains for other costs and profit. The condition is matching DeepSeek’s serving efficiency on the rented hardware and sustaining paid demand at those token prices. Releasing the inference code does not guarantee either. For operators that can do this, we think there is room to keep bidding up scarce GPU capacity, even at twice today’s roughly $9 hourly rate.

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UHS · long

Universal Health Svcs INC

Universal Health Services is a profitable hospital operator whose $146 share price over-discounts an earnings-collapse scenario.

UHS $10B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LI

Nvidia’s Q2 2027 triple-digit growth and above-consensus FY28 outlook reinforce AI infrastructure spending, while Symbotic’s new automation…

SYM $24B
Monte Independent Investment Research

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