Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP 3 clicks

A Capital on X

Interesting special situation in $AKER.NO, which owns ~23% of Nscale. Despite the carnage in neoclouds, the FT reported last week that Nscale may still be targeting a $30–35bn IPO before year-end. What makes this interesting is the valuation disconnect. At ~NOK 1,150, backing out Aker’s other holdings and applying its historical ~22% HoldCo discount implies an ~$11bn valuation for Nscale. Below its $14.6bn March round and well below the proposed IPO range. In September, Third Point led a $3.36bn pre-IPO convertible financing alongside Nvidia, Apollo, Citadel and others. The notes reportedly convert at a double-digit discount to the IPO price, with a $30bn valuation cap on the conversion price. Not exactly a group of unsophisticated investors… At a $25–30bn IPO, I get ~27–39% upside assuming some HoldCo discount compression. Even at a $15bn IPO, the downside looks relatively contained under a historical discount assumption. Obviously the IPO could slip, financing and execution risks are enormous, and the broader neocloud unwind isn’t helping. But you can partially hedge the sector exposure with $CRWV / $NBIS shorts, leaving a more isolated bet on the IPO valuation and HoldCo discount...
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN said on October 26 that it has closed "more than $600 million in non-dilutive project financing" so far in 2026. In my October 19 update, I said the stock depends less on demand than on whether $BRUN can finance the next ~$1B of GPUs without selling shares at beaten-down prices. The release also says: → $BRUN has established "a fully funded runway to accelerate customer deployments through the fourth quarter of 2026," with additional financing "proceeding as planned." → $BRUN delivered the first phase of a multi-phase project to "a leading AI research and product company," which matches its $471.7M May 2026 contract with Thinking Machines Lab (Mira Murati's AI startup). → Several more projects are "nearing hand-off in the coming weeks." → Founder and CEO Andrew Karos: "Customer payments exceed our debt payments every month." The $600M+ is YTD, and lessors funded $268.3M of new GPU leases in H1 2026 alone. So if those leases count toward the $600M+, $BRUN has closed more than $331.7M since June 30, about half to almost two-thirds of the $527-686M of new leases I estimated its H2 2026 build needs. The release doesn't say what the financing costs or how much of it closed since June 30. However, the Q3 10-Q, expected in mid-November, should disclose how much $BRUN leased in Q3 and at what rate. If the 10-Q confirms the $600M+, I'd drop the $62.2M stock sale from my bear case, and the question shifts from whether $BRUN can fund its build to what the new debt costs.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.3B
Bearstone 8 clicks

“Our Strategy Is Unchanged”

Netflix’s $51 billion FY26 revenue outlook and global streaming scale underpin its core strategy as management addresses slowing…

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 7 clicks
PYPL · long

Paypal Holdings INC

PayPal’s valuation implies free cash flow will shrink 9.3% annually over the next decade, framing a long thesis against its recent revenue…

PYPL $47B
Value Investors Club

An Open Letter to the TPL Board

Texas Pacific Land shareholders urge two board additions, data-center expertise, and capital spending beyond mineral royalties toward…

TPL $23B
310 Value’s Newsletter 4 clicks

Software Continued

Microsoft, SAP, Oracle, Adobe and Intuit generate 90.2% of listed IT software net income, with 32.8% EBIT margins.

MSFT $3.9TADBE $97B
Global Outperformers

Defying the Surveys

PNC CEO Bill Demchak says consumer spending, savings, activity and loan growth contradict record-low University of Michigan consumer…

PNC $92B
Net Interest

Forgive me Father, I have Sabled.

Sable Offshore restarted Santa Ynez oil flows under a Defense Production Act order, targeting 50,000 barrels daily and a path to 60,000…

SOC $591M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 3 clicks

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