Merger Monday & Election Implications
EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…
EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…
Sobering one: of 31 distinct names, only 2 have actually reached my Realistic Valuation target. $EVTL and $RR. Median downside capture on the Sept '25 list: 73% of the decline I forecast. On the 2026 lists: 22-41%. Direction right. Magnitude still pending. This means there is still lots of meat on the bone in many of these names.
What I'm carrying into the next list: → Short arithmetic, not narratives → Overleveraged and Industry Bubble earn their slot → Potential Fraud has to clear a much higher bar → Stop re-shorting $RUM Full table and methodology at Shorts & Squeeze Corner.
Across all 110 position-instances: Average short return: +25.7%Median: +23.1%Hit rate: 81% — 89 of 110 names fell Best call, and it wasn't close: $EVTL Vertical Aerospace $5.00 → $0.58 Top performer on all five lists. The Sept '25 entry is +88%. Even the July '26 entry is +66%. The company flagged going-concern risk in a filing this month.
The rest of the Sept '25 podium — a full year of holding: $EVTL +88% $SMR +77% $LVWR +76% $OKLO +73% $BTQ +73% $SOUN +69% $RGTI +67% 19 of the 20 names on that list fell. Nineteen.
Biggest miss was $RUM. $RUM was my worst pick on four of five lists. Average: -23%. $PLTR: -13% average across four lists. Right on the multiple, wrong on the stock, repeatedly. $CVNA: -4% average — and I had it tagged Potential Fraud.
@BertrandPirel to what do you attribute the substantial availability (1.85m shares) and low borrow cost (3.25%) for $GPRO at IBKR?
Astute observation here. $STLN could not be better situated for the current environment, imo. https://t.co/sy97F9J9YU
A Brazilian digital bank with 45 million clients fell 36% after Lula’s election, despite 16.3% ROE, 13 record quarters and a 7.4x earnings…
Truist Financial trades at 10.5x earnings and 1.5x tangible book as new CEO Mike Lyons sells non-core assets and targets 16% to 18% ROTCE.
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Brazil’s Lula victory leaves Nu and Inter’s thesis intact, while JetBlue heads toward bankruptcy and Mexican airlines pursue a merger.
Namib Minerals’ How Mine mill reached 55,000 tonnes per month, 36% above prior capacity, while a proposed $30 million Ecobank facility…
DGXX · short
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American Express’s Q3 billed-business growth slowed and cards in force fell sequentially, but management attributes the weakness to…
Getty Images' 2026 Chapter 11 filing is challenged as a prepack after warrant litigation, a failed Shutterstock merger and AI pressure.
Philip Morris posted 7% organic Q3 revenue growth and 10% operating-income growth as 9.1% cigarette pricing offset flat volumes, while IQOS…
Klaviyo's customer-data platform and new AI Composer product underpin a bullish growth case, with Salesforce's Braze acquisition cited as a…
Signet Jewelers cut its share count from 87 million to 38 million since 2012 as short interest reaches 15%, amid a hated diamond market.
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Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…
Super Micro’s 2026 xAI rack orders, GB300 price increases and B300 mix frame its gross-margin outlook.
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