Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $11B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria 1 click

Asif Suria on X

Mary Barra continues to show that she is the GOAT of the automotive industry. Despite the big pullback in $GM stock today, over the last year: Ford is essentially flat Rivian $RIVN is down 5% Tesla $TSLA is down 16% Stellantis is down a whopping 60% GM is up more than 30% Pulling back the curtain 10 years, Ford generated no returns (not taking dividends into account) and Stellantis lost a third of its value. GM is up 139% over the last 10 years. Barra took on the role of CEO in January 2014 after being with the company since 1980. Obviously the ten year return pales in comparison to the returns of Tesla or the NASDAQ over that time but she has continued to do a great job in a challenging industry that has undergone tremendous change since Tesla transformed the landscape.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

If scale-up uses VCSEL arrays, we think Lumentum ($LITE) would compete with several vendors, eroding its valuation's scarcity premium. Many smart investors are bullish and credit Lumentum with an exclusive ability to make ultra-high-power CW (continuous-beam) lasers for scale-up links between AI chips. If those links go wide and slow (many small VCSEL or microLED emitters, each at modest speed), that case could break down. Lumentum's own Open Compute Project demo used VCSEL arrays from its smartphone 3D-sensing manufacturing platform. The demo is an in-rack proof of concept, not a replacement for every higher-power laser. Credo ($CRDO) opened a workstream with a hyperscaler and ams OSRAM to standardise wide, parallel links, citing supply-chain resiliency, targeting 2027 approval. VCSEL arrays are tested on the wafer, so they are cheap in volume. The standard would let operators buy from Coherent ($COHR), ams OSRAM and others. In that case, we think Lumentum competes on scale and cost, not scarcity: customers can switch, pricing power and margins come under pressure and share must be won. Near-term earnings can still benefit from the laser shortage, with Lumentum sold out through early 2029.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 7 clicks
WRBY · long

Warby Parker

Warby Parker's $25 valuation does not capture potential upside from smartglasses alongside its core omnichannel eyewear business.

WRBY $3.2B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 9 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $83B
Doomberg 9 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $30B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 12 clicks

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