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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP 3 clicks

A Capital on X

Interesting special situation in $AKER.NO, which owns ~23% of Nscale. Despite the carnage in neoclouds, the FT reported last week that Nscale may still be targeting a $30–35bn IPO before year-end. What makes this interesting is the valuation disconnect. At ~NOK 1,150, backing out Aker’s other holdings and applying its historical ~22% HoldCo discount implies an ~$11bn valuation for Nscale. Below its $14.6bn March round and well below the proposed IPO range. In September, Third Point led a $3.36bn pre-IPO convertible financing alongside Nvidia, Apollo, Citadel and others. The notes reportedly convert at a double-digit discount to the IPO price, with a $30bn valuation cap on the conversion price. Not exactly a group of unsophisticated investors… At a $25–30bn IPO, I get ~27–39% upside assuming some HoldCo discount compression. Even at a $15bn IPO, the downside looks relatively contained under a historical discount assumption. Obviously the IPO could slip, financing and execution risks are enormous, and the broader neocloud unwind isn’t helping. But you can partially hedge the sector exposure with $CRWV / $NBIS shorts, leaving a more isolated bet on the IPO valuation and HoldCo discount...
@Mr_Neutral_Man 4 clicks

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

For those of us looking at termite/pest control companies $ROL (Orkins) scheduling was a breeze. The guy was friendly and not pushy at all. Gave a great inspection and a good quote. $RTO (Terminix) told me I had an appointment today Guy doesn’t know he was scheduled for today. Texted me about 4:26pm and was passive aggressive with the text Apparently call center will just book appointments and sales/inspection guys won’t even know they had something scheduled. Not fun to deal with. But I scheduled him to come next week for thoroughness of the research process,

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 8 clicks
TYL · long

Tyler Technologies INC

Tyler Technologies, TYL, is positioned as a resilient govtech software provider if AI disrupts enterprise SaaS.

TYL $16B
Value Investors Club

Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $12B
Hated Moats 7 clicks
UBER 2026-09-07

A quick update on Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives will update prior company analyses through year-end, beginning with Uber, while deferring new work on Micron and S&P Global.

UBER $135B
MBI Deep Dives 5 clicks

The Quality Check #1

The Quality Check #1 reviews recent developments at Arista, Cummins, Veeva, ServiceNow and AppLovin following earnings season.

ANET $225BCMI $72B
Jimmy's Journal

Celsius: The Pepsi Put

Celsius holds 20% of the U.S. energy-drink market and 40% of sugar-free sales, but its $1.65 billion Alani acquisition complicates…

CELH $7.1BPEP $182B
TSOH Investment Research 8 clicks

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