Sunday, October 25, 2026

WD 361: Brazil, JetBlue Bankruptcy, Mexican Airlines Merger

Brazil’s Lula victory leaves Nu and Inter’s thesis intact, while JetBlue heads toward bankruptcy and Mexican airlines pursue a merger.

JBLU $964MNU $73B

Ian’s Insider Corner 22h ago 11 clicks

26h ago AXP $215B

American Express: P&L Slowed, Consumer Didn’t

Librarian Capital's Research Library 3 clicks

35h ago PM $314B

Philip Morris International: Ho-hum Hrmm?

Invariant 11 clicks

From X

@negligible_cap Oct 23 1 click

Negligible Capital on X

Consumer staples are up 12% month-to-date, putting October on track for their best month since 1998 - $XLP

@TidefallCapital Oct 23 7 clicks

Trevor Scott on X

@ReturnsJourney not $PDD lol

@leevalueroach Oct 23 2 clicks

Lee Roach on X

How can Bill Ackman claim that $META has no net debt? I think you need to factor in all the off balance sheet leases liabilities here. My math says that when these leases kick on it will consume 20% of cash from operations. And then new capex commitments should be probably in the range of $200 billion per year going forward. Free cash flow in 2027 will be deep in the red.

@stockgutter Oct 23

SG on X

small at first... the initial trades are feelers. The real opportunity comes if the initial trades get run over. If that happens I take the L, but reinitiate at much higher strikes, in larger size (and even at the same size and further otm the option premium the trade takes in is much higher due to higher IV). At peak they may be 10+% of my portfolio as measured by either margin or risk. Once (when NG was sub-1.80 and people were talking about sub-1) it was ~35%. For $KOLD, timing impacts size too. I hesitate to get large going into the winter, but give me a March with commentators talking about running out of storage capacity over the summer and its game on.

@finphysnerd Oct 23

Myles on X

I have a lot of negative beta to SOXX which has worked well the last few weeks. I think I'm going to short some $SOXS to hedge a bit of that out.

@stockgutter Oct 23 1 click

SG on X

economics of producing miners like $NEM have improved so much. The next five years will not look like the past five. Sure, costs are higher. But they also get so much more per ounce not just from gold but also byproducts. https://t.co/Vz8Gz1hnAw https://t.co/YUIikgQ1DQ

@InvestSpecial Oct 23

Dalius - Special Sits on X

Fund 1 increased its $XPOF exposure through swaps to 9.98%, on top of its existing 9.9% direct equity stake. Total economic exposure now stands at 19.88%. Mgmt has already adopted a poison pill. Fund 1 has a history of building large stakes before launching takeover bids 👇 https://t.co/cmQ92yAG6o

@stockgutter Oct 23

SG on X

I will likely be a seller of $KOLD calls soon (long-dated, otm) https://t.co/NFHV1m9uSc

Investor Letters

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💥Is Getty a Prepack in Name Only?💥

Getty Images' 2026 Chapter 11 filing is challenged as a prepack after warrant litigation, a failed Shutterstock merger and AI pressure.

GETY $11MSSTK $168M

PETITION 33h ago 4 clicks

Meta: A Strong Quarter Behind A $9.9 Billion Legal Charge And $35 Billion Of Capex

Meta posted 26% revenue growth and $9.89 billion in legal charges while funding $35 billion of capex, as AI lifts ad pricing and pressures…

META $1.8T

Tim Travis 35h ago 1 click

Signet Jewelers (SIG): The Next Dillard’s?

Signet Jewelers cut its share count from 87 million to 38 million since 2012 as short interest reaches 15%, amid a hated diamond market.

SIG $4.5B

Cannibal Stocks 42h ago 13 clicks

Avalo Therapeutics: Contrarian 'Buy' Ahead Of Abdakibart's Phase 3

Avalo Therapeutics' Abdakibart enters a pivotal hidradenitis suppurativa trial after positive LOTUS data, with monthly dosing and…

AVTX $658M

Myriam Alvarez 42h ago 2 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $19B

CV's Substack 46h ago 9 clicks

Expert Call | AI Server OEM: 2026 xAI Orders, GB300 Price Hikes & B300 Margin Gains

Super Micro’s 2026 xAI rack orders, GB300 price increases and B300 mix frame its gross-margin outlook.

SMCI $23B

P Equity Research Oct 24 7 clicks

I went through all 142 companies in Value Line this morning. Here are the 6 that made it

Six Value Line small caps including Blackbaud, Marqeta, Ranger Energy and Definitive Healthcare trade on net cash, buybacks, low multiples…

BLKB $2.4BMQ $2B

Calvin Blissett Oct 24 69 clicks

Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $616B

Rebound Capital Oct 24 8 clicks

Netflix's Apocalypse Fears Overly Done - Cash Cow With Renewal Prospects

Netflix pairs international engagement, free cash flow and buybacks with plans for double-digit revenue growth, margin expansion and larger…

NFLX $511B

Juxtaposed Ideas Oct 24 8 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $96B

Doomberg Oct 24 9 clicks

JBFCY · long

Jollibee Foods CORP

Jollibee Foods trades at PHP 144, about 56% below its January 2019 high, framing a long thesis on the Philippine restaurant operator.

JBFCY $2.5B

Value Investors Club Jul 27 1 click

Ares Capital: This 10%+ Yield Is An Undervalued Buy

Ares Capital’s 10%+ yield is supported by a $30.5 billion portfolio with over 70% floating-rate debt, though dividend coverage remains…

ARCC $13B

Jonathan Weber Oct 24 4 clicks

AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap

CoreWeave’s rising debt yields and fading confidence in AI data-center economics frame a weekly review of Meta, Tesla, SpaceX, Netflix,…

CRWV $34BTSLA $1.5T

Steve Eisman Oct 23 28 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $34B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 23 12 clicks

DigitalOcean's AI Flywheel: Unleashing Massive Growth Potential For Bold Investors

DOCN $12B

Star Investments Oct 23 9 clicks

Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings - Revenue Up 138% On The Datacenter Power Race

Bloom Energy’s Q3 FY26 revenue rose 138% to $1.24 billion as datacenter power orders lifted operating margin to 18%; capex drove $181…

BE $56B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 23 8 clicks

Philip Morris: Taking the Fight to the U.S.

Philip Morris reported Q3 growth across heated tobacco, combustibles and e-vapor in Europe while gaining U.S. nicotine-pouch share.

PM $314B

Librarian Capital's Research Library Oct 23 2 clicks

Amazon’s Trainium Takes a Strike at the Training King

Amazon’s Trainium3 adds native PyTorch training support, targeting CUDA-trained researchers with standard APIs, eager mode and…

AMZN $2.8T

SemiAnalysis Oct 23 7 clicks

Alphabet: Gemini 4 Argon Is Coming For ChatGPT's Lunch

Alphabet's Gemini 4 Argon aims to undercut rival AI models using proprietary TPUs, while Android, Siri and Google Cloud distribution…

GOOGL $3.9T

Dustin Quasney Oct 23 3 clicks

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $34B

Net Interest Oct 23 11 clicks

Sunday, October 25, 2026

Negligible Capital on X

Trevor Scott on X

Lee Roach on X

SG on X

Myles on X

SG on X

Dalius - Special Sits on X

SG on X

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