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Sunday, October 25, 2026

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@ParadisLabs 7 clicks

Paradis on X

The fact that there's such varying opinions on the neocloud market is a factor behind the constant stock price volatility. For example, Barclays are bearish while GS are bullish. So while the most recent sell-off is driven by financing & cost of capital concerns, nobody really knows what the ecosystem will look like in December, let alone 2028+. These companies are becoming increasingly impossible to forecast, so Elon & Chamath's comments should be taken as a serious source of information IMO...even if you think they have alterior motives. Consolidation seems likely and IMO there are 3 standout neoclouds: $SPCX, $NBIS and $CRWV.
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

Not actively. I've been pointing out issues with Neocloud/Colo financing since 2025 from $SLNH to $CRWV debt interest. And maintain my opinion only a few neoclouds would survive in a few years, given they build enough of a moat to differentiate themselves against hyperscalers. So I don't think Elon's comments are completely wrong about Neoclouds, but there's nuances. One example was $NBIS SOFR + 2.75% $3.5B facility with Citibank, which actually has better rates than GPU financing from $2T+ companies. So kinda hard to say neocloud financing has "entirely shut off" since this Citibank facility was announced 3D ago I'm not arguing the merits of Elon's claims here. There's some truth to them, even if they're framed in extremes. I'm happy to hear his opinion on the direction of the industry... but if they're mainly amplifying concerns about competitor downfall (which benefits $SPCX + $TSLA) There's some cause for concern about how healthy that is to the town square dynamic Elon originally envisioned with X.
@calvinblissett 3 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$MP. You guys know me I am CHEAP, negative enterprise value, double digit dividend yields cheap. The theme behind $MP looks very secular, I saw Ross Perot call what they have in California the “Saudi’s Arabia” of magnets. Analysts price targets are virtually all 100% above today’s price. The selloff is not justified based on the underlying commodity price (aka fundamentals) is my takeaway from some reading. I also spoke with someone who worked at BofA this summer and per him “on a call with a senator the senator was essentially just repeating buy $MP and the moderator said shut up and stop”. May someone with a bigger brain then me give their thoughts
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$MP. You guys know me I am CHEAP, negative enterprise value, double digit dividend yields cheap. The theme behind $MP looks very secular, I saw Ross Perot call what they have in California the “Saudi’s Arabia” of magnets. Analysts price targets are virtually all 100% above today’s price. The selloff is not justified based on the underlying commodity price (aka fundamentals) is my takeaway from some reading. May someone with a bigger brain then me give their thoughts

Investor Letters

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Margin Call

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PBR $96B
Doomberg 7 clicks
JBFCY · long

Jollibee Foods CORP

Jollibee Foods trades at PHP 144, about 56% below its January 2019 high, framing a long thesis on the Philippine restaurant operator.

JBFCY $2.5B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 11 clicks

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $34B
Net Interest 8 clicks

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