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Sunday, October 25, 2026

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@orrdavid 1 click

David Orr on X

It's not THAT clear Citadel made a good bet. Probably good. But it could be losing. Three buckets: 1. Citadel brand buying the block creates a lot of buyers short term, letting them get out. A counter to this is: how many other funds/players blew up at the same time, with how much more stock still needing to be sold at any price by brokers? And redemptions. 2. The $SOXX drop was mostly just technical and will keep going up again after this. In which case Citadel will kill it. 3. The $SOXX drop was on real fundamentals, like the market knows the trade is over. In that case, Citadel stands to get slaughtered if the move continues down. Nobody really knows. Memory seems very questionable, though. I follow $TSM well and that seems merely fairly priced here, not a screamin' buy. $NVDA seems hard today, with all this chatter of competing chips / AI getting so powerful the software moat seems like probable junk in a few years.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Himax and the parallel optical bet $HIMX sits in two places in the optical stack: micro-lens arrays that route light into fiber, and a more speculative but potentially transformative position in microLED-based CPO. The microLED idea inverts the industry’s core assumption. Instead of fewer, ever-faster InP laser channels, it uses hundreds or thousands of simple low-speed lanes (4–10G each). High-speed SerDes and DSP largely disappear, energy drops below 1 pJ/bit, and the continuous-wave InP laser is eliminated entirely — replaced by GaN microLEDs from the display supply chain. Reliability improves and failures become graceful rather than catastrophic. Reach is limited to a few meters and the fiber-bundle ecosystem is still immature, so the technology is confined to short-reach scale-up. It remains pre-revenue and more debated than it was a few months ago. Yet the process know-how from Himax’s high-density display drivers maps unusually well onto this architecture. The stock is up ~55% YTD but down ~18% QTD, and currently trades around 31x EV/FCF and 10x EV/GP. For anyone who still sees a meaningful path for CPO — and views the microLED route as high-upside optionality rather than pure speculation — the current levels look like a reasonable place to build or add. We go deeper on the microLED architecture and its place in the broader optical stack in Part 4 of our Photonics series at Convequity.

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Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $76B
Doomberg 13 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $27B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 13 clicks

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $27B
Net Interest 12 clicks
JBFCY · long

Jollibee Foods CORP

Jollibee Foods trades at PHP 144, about 56% below its January 2019 high, framing a long thesis on the Philippine restaurant operator.

JBFCY $2.6B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Putting bear cases to rest

Medpace authorized $1 billion of buybacks through 2028 after Q3 revenue rose 8.5% to $716 million; service revenue grew roughly 12% as…

MEDP $18B
Best Anchor Stocks 15 clicks

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