Thursday, October 22, 2026

@leevalueroach Oct 19 1 click

Lee Roach on X

Geo Group $GEO sold its 3 Adelanto ICE facilities (2,644 beds) to DHS for $950M, about $359K per bed. The market currently values GEO at about $92K of EV per remaining owned bed, and that EV also includes the electronic monitoring and services businesses.

@Mr_Neutral_Man Oct 19

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

Me looking at that $3.39-$3.40 print by $SITC this morning and can't do much bc I already have a 25% notional position and a 23% actual position Congrats to whoever bought it, I will mourn this opportunity Gonna go enjoy my day by practicing baseball with my son later https://t.co/KaLlffAdsu

@finphysnerd Oct 19 1 click

Myles on X

If you're naturally bearish like me I think it pays to push long when positioning gets washed out like it is now even if fundamentals are bad. Retail has been selling, hedge fund net leverage is low, $RSP and $QQQ have been smashed. You are going to be right 60-80% of the time,

@finphysnerd Oct 19

Myles on X

Closing my $QQQ and $SMH shorts here and lowering my $IWM exposure. I think we're bottoming here so keeping net long exposure, but the Q's and tech have really lagged over the last 2 weeks. Very happy with this trade.

@stockgutter Oct 19 1 click

SG on X

$AXTQ is down 25% today. The only thing worse than 2x single name ETFs are 2x inverse single name ETFs--a small bounce is lethal.

@DOMOCAPITAL Oct 19 2 clicks

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

I think we can assume that $PESI lost money in Q3, but the most important indicator for me is the backlogs. If they can show a huge increase in backlogs that should indicate that they can be cash flow positive in Q4 and beyond. Stock will go $20+ if market takes the "equity raise" risk premium out - which it should - if management can give certainty on the cash flow front. Again, I think a focus on the backlogs would be the main indicator of this.

@kevin__mak Oct 19 2 clicks

Kevin Mak on X

$CMPS Update on Compass Pathways (1) We're currently waiting for the company to complete its rolling NDA (New Drug Application) submission to the FDA, expected this quarter. The FDA has already started reviewing portions of the application. Reminder that Compass has been granted both rolling review and a Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher, which targets a review period of roughly 1–2 months once the complete application is filed. That timeline isn't guaranteed, but this is one of the fastest review processes available. It doesn't guarantee approval either, but it clearly shows that the FDA is prioritizing getting this drug reviewed. (2) The company presented at the STAT Summit, and the CEO said they will “go slow before we go fast.” My guess is that's being interpreted in a slightly negative way, suggesting that the initial drug launch won't necessarily get quick traction. As an investor in the company, my first reaction is that I don't want to hear that. I want to hear that revenues are going to explode out of the gate. But just because I want to hear something doesn't make it true. Taking a step back, Compass has taken a deliberate approach to developing this drug and preparing for launch. The CEO's point was that bad early experiences for patients or providers could set back both Compass and the broader industry. Getting those first experiences right matters. I think calibrating expectations and not being overly promotional is a smart choice. That could mean a more measured initial revenue ramp, and I'm fine with that if it sets them up for sustained adoption. At the same time, the company has been preparing to scale. Its strategic collaborations span more than 1,000 sites, including Neuronetics/Greenbrook and other established treatment networks. There is already substantial infrastructure to build on. I think this is the correct approach. (3) The company has now explicitly communicated expected annualized drug pricing of $50k–$65k per patient, based on an average of roughly three doses per year. That implies approximately $17k–$22k per dose, before clinic administration and monitoring costs. The final launch price hasn't been announced, but management has given us a much clearer pricing framework. In terms of M&A, which isn't part of my base case, my guess is the best window is after the label is set. At that point, a potential buyer will know much more clearly what they're buying and how it can be commercialized. From a positioning perspective, I think completing the NDA submission could bring new investors into the stock. It removes another layer of timeline uncertainty and puts an FDA decision much more directly in view. My guess is that matters to investors who have been watching but haven't wanted to get involved yet. My long-term outlook on the stock is unchanged. I think they get a good label, and I think concerns about the length of clinic visits are overblown. The market is massively underserved, and Spravato (which I believe COMP360 will offer a more attractive alternative to) is already selling at roughly a $2.5B annualized rate. My PT remains $45, and my full write-up is below. https://t.co/rVZOU3yIz6 Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds a positions in CMPS. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information.