Thursday, October 22, 2026

@StableBread Oct 7

Fajasy on X

The Pentagon wants every major U.S. military installation to generate its own power. In August 2026, the Army chose five companies for Janus, a program expected to put more than 20 commercial microreactors on military bases. One of the five already builds the reactors for the Navy’s submarines and aircraft carriers, and its stock is down almost 40%. That company is BWX Technologies $BWXT, and even after a 7.6% jump on October 6, the stock is down 38.9% from its $238.42/share peak on April 15. $BWXT didn’t fall alone: → The VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF $NLR is down 33.4% from its January high, even after rising 5.5% on October 6. → Curtiss-Wright $CW, which supplies pumps and valves for the same submarines and carriers, is down 30.2% from its July high. So $BWXT got caught in a broader nuclear and defense selloff, but it fell further than both $NLR and $CW after guiding to slower growth in 2027. Meanwhile, $BWXT’s business got stronger: → Guidance up twice: 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance rose from $645-660M in February to $662-672M in August. → An $8.4B backlog, more than double the $4.0B $BWXT had at the end of 2023. → CEO Rex Geveden calls $BWXT “the sole provider for naval reactors.” The Navy’s 30-year shipbuilding plan, released in May, calls for a new carrier every four years instead of every five. → The Army chose $BWXT’s 20-megawatt reactor for Janus at Fort Campbell, Kentucky, on August 26. On October 5, Prodigy Clean Energy, a Montreal-based developer of factory-built nuclear plants, chose the same reactor for a transportable power plant in New Brunswick. → 2030 targets: $BWXT targeted $5.5-6.0B of revenue and $1.1-1.2B of adjusted EBITDA in 2030. It’s on track to meet or beat all three targets it set in February 2024. Still, here’s what could hold the stock back: → $BWXT expects growth to slow in 2027. Its preliminary framework calls for high-single-digit growth in both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. → Even after the 38.9% drop, $BWXT isn’t cheap in absolute terms. It trades at 20.9x NTM EV/EBITDA and 29.3x earnings. → By CFO Mike Fitzgerald’s count, only a little over half of the revenue growth to 2030 comes from what $BWXT calls its “predictable core,” the programs backed by backlog and long-term contracts. The rest depends on new orders and acquisitions. → $BWXT’s Janus release discloses no dollar figure. Owning reactors is a new business model for $BWXT, with capital commitments it hasn’t disclosed. → No $BWXT insider has bought stock in the open market since at least January 2025, including during the drop from $238 to $135. → The government is running on a continuing resolution through December 11. At $145.70/share, BWXT has a market cap of $13.35B and an EV of $15.0B ($13.35B + $2.05B of debt - $0.40B of cash). It trades at 22.5x 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance and 30.7x non-GAAP EPS guidance. In return, you get an $8.4B backlog, more than double the $4.0B BWXT had at the end of 2023. And on NTM estimates, its EV/EBITDA has dropped to 20.9x from ~35x in March, back to its 2024 levels. So is the Navy’s reactor supplier on sale, or does the market see a slowdown the numbers don’t show yet? That's what I answer in my new ~6,800 word deep dive on $BWXT! Credit to @GrumpierBTDay for the idea.

@DeepSailCapital Oct 7

Deep Sail Capital on X

$SHAZ - Breaking down here. Short opportunity. https://t.co/qK8bLsCrVP

@cfrischer1 Oct 7

Charles Frischer on X

$NN I understand we have strong support at key administrative levels but I believe they want to wait until after midterms. They don’t want any distractions before midterms. After midterms, full steam ahead.

@SouthernValue95 Oct 7

SouthernValue on X

Danaher $DHR is combining technology from several of its bioprocessing and life science companies with Lab Robotics startup Automata to launch an AI-powered robotic autonomous research lab. From the Press Release: Danaher's first AI-powered autonomous lab is designed to deliver: - Speed: Up to 8x faster discovery of affinity reagents, helping researchers get from idea to breakthrough sooner - Scale: Unlocking up to a tenfold increase in annual reagent generation, from tens to hundreds of reagents per year as the lab scales - Quality: Each design built in the lab would also be verified, tested and fed back to improve the next, without trading speed for scientific rigor - Sustainability: Over time, this approach is expected to complement traditional immunization-based methods used in the discovery of antibodies and other research tools Based at Abcam, a Danaher company, the lab uses AI to help create new affinity reagents, including antibodies, then builds and tests each one, feeding every result back into the model to improve the next design. The lab brings together industry-leading technologies and expertise from several Danaher operating companies, including Beckman Coulter Life Sciences, Cytiva, Genedata, Integrated DNA Technologies, and Molecular Devices, in one connected workflow. The device orchestration and robotic automation is the result of collaborative work with Automata*. This continuous design-make-test-learn loop can run in a fraction of the time it takes today, without trading speed for scientific rigor. This approach applies the same test-and-verify discipline of continuous improvement long used across Danaher operations to an AI-enabled laboratory environment. The lab is set to be an early proof point for how Danaher's smart instruments, AI-ready data, and expert agentic systems can accelerate scientific discovery and medical progress. https://t.co/mw00CBjDC4

@cfrischer1 Oct 7

Charles Frischer on X

$NN Given market trading, I assume NPRM won’t drop today. I think given the political nature of the opposition, Dec meeting post midterms looks most likely right now.