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Tuesday, October 20, 2026

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Vicor Update, Part Three

Vicor’s $66.6 million in AI power-delivery royalties generated about $50 million of operating profit, eclipsing its module business as revenue reached $197.1 million.

VICR $10B
CV's Substack 27 clicks

From X

@ParadisLabs 3 clicks

Paradis on X

Once again, the GPU depreciation bear thesis is dead. Elon on the $SPCX call: "The value of compute per watt will increase over time, not decrease... that's why you see things like even old computers like H100s renting for more than they rented when they were new." When supply is this constrained, GPU rental prices are set by the value of the marginal token, not the replacement cost of the chip. Models keep getting better, and better models raise the value of every installed watt faster than new GPUs deflate the old ones. Various datapoints all stack up: -> $SPCX says compute contracts are renewing "at higher dollars per watt, not lower dollars per watt" -> 1-year H100 contract pricing went from ~$1.70/hr to ~$2.35/hr between Oct 2025 and Mar 2026 (a 2022 chip!) -> $CRWV signed an A100 contract running into 2029 (a 2020 chip) and said older-gen pricing is at / above a year ago, and raised list prices ~25% in July. -> $NBIS's first Blackwell auction cleared 15% above its previous high and as a reminder....they told customers H100 on-demand goes up ~17% (from Oct 1). -> Zuckerberg: $META is getting offers for its compute "at a significant premium over what we paid for it". -> Lenders are now lending against GPUs out to 2030 e.g. $NBIS borrowed against its GPUs at SOFR+250 in July. Feels like the 2-3 year GPU useful life bear thesis keeps getting setback. Ofc, the one thing that ruins the party is the S/D gap closing -- Rental prices fall back toward replacement cost + older GPUs get repriced on perf/W. Which won't happen anytime soon.

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Heico Corporation

HEICO sells FAA-approved aircraft replacement parts at 30% to 50% discounts to OEMs, gaining customers as restrictive aftermarket contracts…

HEI $43B
D Invests 13 clicks

Copper Fox Metals: Research Flash

Copper Fox’s C$9.1 million Schaft Creek program advances metallurgical, tailings, water and road studies toward a pre-feasibility study,…

TECK $31B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 6 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens ad…

APP $92BU $18B
Speedwell Memos 66 clicks
SLS · short

Sellas Life Sciences Group I

SELLAS Life Sciences Group faces a short case arguing that even a strong clinical outcome does not support its current valuation.

SLS $2.3B
Value Investors Club

Everybody Sold the Power

Fermi, a $6 billion Texas power developer with 17 gigawatts of planned capacity, needs its first data-center lease before turbine financing…

FRMI $2.2B
Mispriced Assets 1 click

Tidewater (TDW): a first-pass look

Tidewater’s $22,600 average day rate and $598 million FY2025 EBITDA rest on an aging OSV fleet, scant newbuilds and fleet acquisitions…

TDW $4B
Stock Thoughts

SAP: DCF Valuation

SAP’s DCF valuation sets a $260 base-case target versus a $155.09 ADR price, based on cloud migration, AI efficiencies and expanding EBIT…

SAP $259B
Hated Moats

Duffy’s Last Dance

CME CEO Terry Duffy moves to executive chairman while suing the CFTC over Kalshi’s approval to list perpetual futures, defending CME’s…

CME $106B
Net Interest

New Buy : Zoetis 🐕

Zoetis trades near 10x EV/EBIT after its selloff, with animal-health leadership, a $9.5 billion revenue base and companion-animal demand…

ZTS $33B
D Invests

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