WD #360: New Trade, Recent Market Action, Brazil/Inter Update
Atlassian is sold after a 130% gain, while iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is added following the market plunge; the update also assesses the AI-stock selloff and CoreWeave’s collapse.
Atlassian is sold after a 130% gain, while iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is added following the market plunge; the update also assesses the AI-stock selloff and CoreWeave’s collapse.
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
The industrial logic for the $UNF and $CTAS merger captured in one picture. Both have been going to the Chipotle (or same strip center) near our office in Houston on the same days at the same time (the store was closed at the time this pic was taken). https://t.co/zxTIFVgn1s
Tough end of the year in merger arb land $BATL, $RVNC, $X, $ACI, $CPRI
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
We went Long $BIRK this past weekend. The call was timed ahead of this print, which we thought would be well ahead. But the call is much bigger than beating the qtr. No reason why this won't compound to a double+ over TAIL duration.
Where are all the $RH haters/trolls this morning? <crickets> This stock could be $600 in short order, and it will likely STILL be a long!
SaaS companies including Salesforce, ServiceNow, CrowdStrike, Synopsys and Veeva are ranked by agentic AI progress, from pilots to…
Lennar’s land-bank costs pressure homebuilding margins, while Flowers Foods weighs a Tastykake sale after falling branded-bread share,…
Occidental Petroleum’s debt should fall further after Q3 oil prices averaged $85 per barrel WTI and $91 Brent.
Hess Midstream, Iovance Biotherapeutics, Netlist and nine other lesser-covered stocks make this week’s Undercovered Dozen.
Zscaler CEO Jay Chaudhry and CFO Kevin Rubin discuss the cybersecurity company’s growth prospects and valuation.
Digital Realty paid $120 million for Atlanta-area parcels including a former Army dump with buried carcinogens and military ordnance.
Wells Fargo’s Q3 EPS beat and $12.5 billion net interest income failed to move shares, while WFC.PZ preferreds yield 7.10%.
Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper…
DigitalOcean’s CEO says the cloud company will not take on extraordinary leverage to fund its AI push.
Optical-component vendor call covers 800G and 1.6T demand, AI cluster optical density, market share, pricing and 2027 growth for Coherent,…
SiriusXM trades at 6.5 times free cash flow, a 15% yield, with high short interest and catalysts that could drive a short squeeze.
Steve Eisman examines AI data-center debt, CoreWeave's tech correction and agentic AI's effect on banks as earnings season begins.
RELX’s 13-petabyte fraud and identity data moat supports its high-margin Risk segment as its valuation falls to roughly half its peak P/E.
CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.
PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…
Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…
CoreWeave’s 2032 notes yield over 15%, signaling a 54% default probability as borrowing costs exceed rental yields on AI infrastructure…
Marvell is positioning networking, optical connectivity and server-management chips as AI data centers link GPUs, custom accelerators and…
AeroVironment's $465M LOCUST laser award and earnings beat support its 2027 growth outlook despite government budget uncertainty.
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