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Monday, October 19, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

From June 1 to October 16, Boost Run $BRUN fell 77.3%, vs. 37.4-58.7% for CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. That drop in AI infra stocks is tied to to rising bets on another Fed rate hike. Higher rates hurt GPU clouds in two ways, since they (1) raise the cost of the debt that pays for their GPUs and (2) lower what investors will pay today for profits that arrive years later. But all three peers kept or raised their 2026 targets: → $CRWV: Raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $12.4-13.2B on its Q2 call. → $IREN: Raised its year-end ARR target to more than $4B on July 20. → $NBIS: Reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with its Q2 results. The problem is that lenders are charging more now. CoreWeave’s 9.625% notes due 2032 yielded 14.74% on October 16, up from 13.19% on October 1, meaning CoreWeave would likely pay ~15%/year to borrow the same way today. So the selloff came from how investors now see the cost of funding the demand for GPU clouds, not from the demand itself.
@gnoble79

George Noble on X

$CRWV IS THE MOST OBVIOUS SHORT The stock is down 41% since we shorted it at $107 in June, and it’s still one of our biggest shorts. While it cratered, Robinhood customers bought a record amount of it over 5 days, and that's not what you want to see if you're a bull. I think only a takeunder from Nvidia, meaning a buyout below today's price, keeps it out of bankruptcy. Investors are refusing to pay up for AI data centers: https://t.co/BNlSCTeNcI

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper…

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 13 clicks
YOU · short

Clear Secure INC

Clear Secure's Clear Plus subscription business is nearing maturity despite recent bookings strength, supporting a short thesis on YOU.

YOU $6.2B
Value Investors Club

Portfolio Update July 2026

Portfolio update trimmed Greggs and Roper Technologies after earnings, with Roper raising guidance and Greggs reporting 7.2% revenue growth…

ROP $38BZTS $33B
D Invests 1 click

Deep Dive: Equifax ($EFX)

Equifax’s Workforce Solutions generated $2.58B in 2025 at more than 50% EBITDA margins, anchored by Work Number.

EFX $19B
Rebound Capital 1 click

Genius Sports (GENI)

Genius Sports’ $1.2 billion Legend acquisition adds direct bettor monetization, while its exclusive NFL data rights could supply prediction…

SRAD $13B
Sylence Capital 1 click

Floor & Decor: 2Q26 Business Update

Floor & Decor’s same-store sales improved to minus 2%, while $45 million of tariff refunds lifted second-quarter gross profit and operating…

FND $4.9B
Speedwell Memos 8 clicks

“The tip of the iceberg.”

Stevanato's 8% organic Q2 growth and 21% adjusted EBITDA growth came with a modest FY 2026 guidance lift after the Balda divestiture.

STVN $5.2B
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