Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Monday, October 19, 2026

Back to today

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

From June 1 to October 16, Boost Run $BRUN fell 77.3%, vs. 37.4-58.7% for CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. That drop in AI infra stocks is tied to to rising bets on another Fed rate hike. Higher rates hurt GPU clouds in two ways, since they (1) raise the cost of the debt that pays for their GPUs and (2) lower what investors will pay today for profits that arrive years later. But all three peers kept or raised their 2026 targets: → $CRWV: Raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $12.4-13.2B on its Q2 call. → $IREN: Raised its year-end ARR target to more than $4B on July 20. → $NBIS: Reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with its Q2 results. The problem is that lenders are charging more now. CoreWeave’s 9.625% notes due 2032 yielded 14.74% on October 16, up from 13.19% on October 1, meaning CoreWeave would likely pay ~15%/year to borrow the same way today. So the selloff came from how investors now see the cost of funding the demand for GPU clouds, not from the demand itself.
@gnoble79

George Noble on X

$CRWV IS THE MOST OBVIOUS SHORT The stock is down 41% since we shorted it at $107 in June, and it’s still one of our biggest shorts. While it cratered, Robinhood customers bought a record amount of it over 5 days, and that's not what you want to see if you're a bull. I think only a takeunder from Nvidia, meaning a buyout below today's price, keeps it out of bankruptcy. Investors are refusing to pay up for AI data centers: https://t.co/BNlSCTeNcI
@gnoble79 24 clicks

George Noble on X

This is not what you want to see if you are a $CRWV bull. $CRWV remains one of our biggest shorts. We are short from $107. Only a takeunder from $NVDA will prevent bankruptcy. Subscribe to the Noble Update to receive our best ideas. 67% YTD performance based on a diversified book of longs AND shorts. We have unrivaled performance. We have decades of experience. We are battled tested and have been through numerous market cycles. We have a process. While others chase narratives and charts, we focus on valuation and fundamentals. KNOW WHAT YOU OWN. YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER IS GREATLY APPRECIATED.

Investor Letters

All letters

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper…

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 13 clicks
IQV · long

Iqvia Holdings INC

IQVIA runs drug trials and gets paid regardless of whether drugs pass, while trading at a COVID-low multiple with potential AI benefits.

IQV $45B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Rebound Watchlist: July 2026

Rebound Capital's July 2026 watchlist puts AeroVironment and Coinbase under review after UnitedHealth rose more than 70% from its low.

COIN $45B
Rebound Capital

New Position: Volatility Merchant

A digital market-infrastructure platform dominant in rates and expanding in credit trades at 22 times free cash flow, with 45%+ FCF margins…

TW $28B
Aurelion Research

Artificial Bloom

Bloom Energy’s AI data-center fuel-cell growth plans face scrutiny over scandium supply, with Hunterbrook alleging China dependence and…

BE $67B
Doomberg 1 click

Credo Technology Deep Dive

Credo Technology sells active copper cables for AI data centers, with revenue rising 126% then 206% as Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and…

CRDO $32B
CV's Substack

MercadoLibre: Valuation Model

MercadoLibre’s sum-of-the-parts model values commerce and payments on FCFF, credit on equity returns, producing a $1,980 base-case target…

MELI $93B
Hated Moats

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

128 publications

Newsletters 108

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 52 of 244

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

90 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

189 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.