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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $12B
CV's Substack 14 clicks

From X

@HedgeyeRetail

Brian McGough on X

$DKS approaching ATH with a solid gain in a red retail tape. We're short it, so it's working against me right now. Recently moved it lower on our Position Monitor as near-term fundys are in the company's favor. Data looks good right now -- but the data doesn't show margins. And that's my biggest concern here -- zero flow through from comp to margin in the DSG concept (especially house of sport). And FL, well, it's still FL. #DickLocker
@HedgeyeRetail 1 click

Brian McGough on X

A few weeks back, I said something to the effect of "who could be stupid enough to short $CHWY at $25." Lo and behold, the stock is now ticking at $17.50. My statement was wrong. We're not Long CHWY -- yet -- but this company has a solid moat in a duopoly with $AMZN and it's kind of mind numbing to see it trade at 6.8x EBITDA. Valuation is not a catalyst, but we're definitely doing the deep dive on whether going all in on CHWY sub $20 is the right call. Over a TAIL duration, I don't see how you lose. But over TREND, not so sure. Stay tuned...
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$FIS I appreciate the ai narrative and stable coins narrative for broad payment sector names...but $FIS at current prices seems like a good Depp value opportunity. In general the rubber band seems very far stretched between the momentum names in semi capX and the ai "losers" and mega cap tech. Whether its sell the news on $MU earnings, end of quarter rebalancing etc, seems we are on the cusp of a rotation. (even if its only short lasting, should be quite volatile as we say several weeks ago). [going long Amzn, select software, fis, select med tech to play that versus short the SOXX, some derivative names like $CAT]

Investor Letters

All letters

2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5.1T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $786M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $7.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.2B
CV's Substack 20 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

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