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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 14 clicks

From X

@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

Many. High level, the $AIRS quarter wasn't as good as hoped, but certainly not something that warranted the kind of response it received. Top of the funnel interest in lipo slowed in June/July. I have my own thesis on the potential impact of the world cup, given the shift in consumer interest in that procedure towards the latina community over the past 15-years. Only time will tell if that's right. Either way, the business is stable and now oriented for growth. Adding new procedures (eye bleph and alloclae) significantly expands $AIRS ability to serve the GLP-1 crowd. My expectation is we'll see the bank deal completed before they report 3Q26 and that could coincide with the announcement of site expansion in early 2027. The growth opportunity here remains monumental. $AIRS has massive inherent operating leverage to improved site level utilization. There was some fast money and retail involved here (clearly!), but this is about the company improving the marketing funnel in absolute lead generation and conversion, driving site level utilization, and expanding on a de novo basis. That's the recipe and obsessing about whether growth should have been 2-4% higher for 2Q26 in that context is irrelevant. This is a business that can be 3-5x the size and still have a runway for growth.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

This potential deal for Workday $WDAY by Silver Lake as reported by @MilanaVinn of Reuters is fascinating. I wonder if Silver Lake is going to try to recreate with @aneelb what they did with @MichaelDell Silver Lake has been selling down their $DELL stock for several weeks/months as we have been reporting in our Insider Weekends articles every Sunday on InsideArbitrage. Workday got up to $300 at least twice in the last five years and I would be surprised if the final deal (if it happens) comes in below $250.

Investor Letters

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $748M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $7.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 20 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $92B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

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