Saturday, October 17, 2026

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B

CV's Substack 33h ago 11 clicks

38h ago COHR $52B

Expert Call | Q3 2026 Optical Components Market Dynamics, Vendor Market Share, & 2027 Growth Outlook

P Equity Research 12 clicks

Oct 16 CRWV $34B

Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman 21 clicks

From X

@convequity Oct 8

Convequity on X

Huawei's finer bonding deserves more weight in the AI-chip race. $AVGO's 3.5D approach combines vertically stacked dies with the side-by-side packaging used to connect processors and HBM. It adds another direction in which designers can shorten the wires moving data around a chip. Besi describes Broadcom's initial face-to-face hybrid bonding at 6µm pitch. Huawei reports 1.5µm for its 2026 Kirin implementation. Pitch is the spacing between connections; face-to-face brings the dies' wiring surfaces together. On an identical square grid, that spacing difference allows 16x as many potential bond sites per unit area. Usable connections still depend on routing and the space reserved for power and repair. It is an architectural opportunity, not a bandwidth multiple. The size qualification matters. Kurnal's Kirin 9050 die shots measure roughly 121mm² per die. Extending fine-pitch bonding to much larger AI dies changes the economics: more expensive silicon is at risk when a stack fails, and heat and power delivery have to work across the whole assembly. Broadcom also said face-to-face compute SoC shipments began in February 2026. A later roadmap cannot be read as its first arrival at face-to-face bonding. Huawei looks ahead on this published pitch comparison. Our view is that this gives it a credible route to narrowing parts of the AI-chip gap through packaging. The stronger claim needs production evidence at large accelerator scale. The phone result alone does not establish when that arrives. Builds on Convequity's Huawei After Sanctions, Parts 1–2, 10 & 18 Sep 2026, with updated source checks.

@ParadisLabs Oct 8

Paradis on X

It feels like the networking/optical theme has room to run after $MRVL's recent analyst day. According to BNP Paribas: We remain bullish on the optical supply chain given the strong demand for 800G and 1.6T transceivers: Coherent, Credo, Fabrinet, Lumentum, MACOM, Marvell, and MaxLinear. This is interesting. Despite macro instability, there seems to be growing conviction in a heavier rotation into optical names pre-Q3 earnings.

@convequity Oct 8

Convequity on X

Copilot's local AI won't lift PC sales much $MSFT's new local Copilot features need a Copilot+ PC. IDC counted those at 2.3% of Windows PCs sold in Q1 2025, the latest count we've found. Copilot+ PCs also need at least 16GB of memory, more than budget laptops carry. Memory costs are why IDC expects PC prices to rise 18.3% and shipments to fall 11.3% in 2026.

@KEDM_COM Oct 7

KEDM.com on X

Both Up Fintech $TIGR and Futu $FUTU benefited from Asians YOLO-ing into 3x levered long MU and SPCX ETFs, with FUTU now up significantly since the regulatory crackdown in May. They only started throttling Mainland accounts in mid-June so the real impact won't be visible until next quarter. ~12x P/E ex-Mainland if you annualize Q2, although Q3 is bound to be a little weaker.

@orrdavid Oct 7

David Orr on X

$LULU just now https://t.co/CMBjD201I0

@P_Remarks Oct 7 1 click

Prepared Remarks on X

$24b in equity from the gulf funds cut Larry’s personal guarantee by 50%. Liontree, Redbird, and the non Larry Ellison family money cuts it further Another $orcl boogeyman story that’s a nothingburger https://t.co/QifC1wSxtE

@negligible_cap Oct 7

Negligible Capital on X

At this point $NKE and $LULU should just merge to create one big piece of shit

@leevalueroach Oct 7 2 clicks

Lee Roach on X

A leaked GameStop $GME memo has used PlayStations trading 50% higher than MSRP because of GTA release. GameStop about to print money into the end of the year. https://t.co/niu0IXZytS

RELX: The Risk Segment Makes This Buy Less Risky

RELX’s 13-petabyte fraud and identity data moat supports its high-margin Risk segment as its valuation falls to roughly half its peak P/E.

RELX $64B

LA Capital Oct 16 6 clicks

OpenAI Does Math, Reward Hacking, Meta Launches Personal Agent

OpenAI and Meta push AI agents forward as reward hacking remains a core challenge for model training.

META $1.9T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 5 clicks

One More Note on Agents, Meta Connect, Meta Enterprise Platform

Meta ties AI agents and Meta Connect to its enterprise-platform opportunity.

META $1.9T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 14 clicks

2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

NFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 16 11 clicks

GE Vernova: AI's Next Bottleneck Is Electricity

GE Vernova’s 116 GW gas-turbine backlog and $5 billion in early-2026 data-center orders target AI-driven electricity demand, though its…

GEV $251B

Todd Feldman Oct 16 3 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 15 52 clicks

ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool!

ASML’s patent filings point to a track-based die-to-wafer hybrid bonding tool that could challenge Besi in advanced logic packaging.

ASML $631B

SemiAnalysis Oct 15 12 clicks

CoreWeave: Why Credit Markets See A 54% Chance Of Default

CoreWeave’s 2032 notes yield over 15%, signaling a 54% default probability as borrowing costs exceed rental yields on AI infrastructure…

CRWV $34B

Dustin Quasney Oct 15 24 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B

Speedwell Research Oct 15 27 clicks

LLY · long

LILLY (ELI) & CO

Eli Lilly trades at 33 times this year’s earnings and 26 times next year’s, versus roughly 12 times for big pharma peers.

LLY $1.2T

Value Investors Club Jul 18 2 clicks

Kraft Heinz: The Boring 2027 Long That Doesn't Need A Rich Multiple

Kraft Heinz expects brand investment and productivity gains to restore sales growth and protect 2027 margins against 4-5% cost inflation.

KHC $28B

The Alpha Analyst Oct 15 1 click

ASML 3Q’26: 2030 Arrived Four Years Early

ASML reported €11.7 billion in 3Q 2026 sales, up 55%, and raised full-year guidance to €44–45 billion as AI-driven semiconductor demand…

ASML $631B

MBI Deep Dives Oct 15 13 clicks

Berkshire B: Holding, Developing Headwinds Have Yet To Reflect In Stock Price, In My View

Berkshire Hathaway trades at 1.46 times book as reinsurance pricing pressure, softer P&C, concentrated equities and cash weigh on its…

BRK.A $1.1T

Pearl Gray Equity and Research Oct 15 3 clicks

[scuttleslops] MRVL, APP, AMZN, Chips

Marvell is positioning networking, optical connectivity and server-management chips as AI data centers link GPUs, custom accelerators and…

MRVL $208B

scuttleblurb Oct 15 12 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 15 27 clicks

TSMC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

TSMC reported excellent Q3 results, guided Q4 revenue growth higher and saw its shares slip despite strong AI-driven earnings momentum.

TSM $2.3T

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 15 9 clicks

Why Broadcom Is My Largest Stock Holding Today

AVGO $1.6T

Fundamental Options Oct 15 4 clicks

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI…

SBUX $109BCMG $39B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 87 clicks

An Interview with Nvidia’s Ian Buck on Why GPUs Keep Winning

Nvidia’s Ian Buck says CUDA’s software ecosystem, GPU flexibility and annual Vera Rubin upgrades lower token costs as agentic AI pushes…

NVDA $5.2T

Key Context by Tae Kim Oct 14 5 clicks

Saturday, October 17, 2026

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