Semtech Analyst Day Review
Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.
Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.
$CRWV has ~$10bn of unsecured HY notes, all yielding 14-15%. There’s also another ~$11bn of converts. That’s ~$21bn of unsecured claims, sitting behind the secured debt that funds the GPUs. Here's the latest market pricing on the HY notes (converts excluded): https://t.co/vVxKgKVCRc
The asset base is too large and diversified to ever underwrite loan by loan. The thesis is that the private credit apocalypse is exaggerated, $OWL became the poster child given its reliance on the HNW channel, and the market is assigning far too little value to its non-credit assets and durable fee-generating franchise.
@FrenchV33921 Already there with $CRWV and $IREN IS $NBIS worse?
@sidecarcap This is exactly what I think is happening with $SLM $KSPI and maybe $YB. $KNSL too
@Pembrokestcap But isn’t $OWL reputation, and by extension their ability to raise capital, permanently impaired? Who cares if they own valuable GP stakes and real estate businesses that never tapped the high-net-worth channel? Isn’t the entire franchise structurally compromised?
Shorts that aren't actually that overvalued (a 10+15% grower trading at 30x earnings can be overvalued, but still easily trade to 40-50x). Sizing is very important. Stuff like $CBA, $WDFC, $WMT, $WING have been some of my biggest winners this year with no catalyst.
My favorite part of this $OWL article… What possible value could investment bankers see in a full or partial sale of the business that the public market is apparently missing? https://t.co/5rjY1IZQv1 https://t.co/yWPrLNBD21
Wall Street finally started to see the GameStop $GME transformation. Dan Ives just made a comment on the company. Wait until other sheep start piling into the story. https://t.co/PsHMLM94Tv
RELX’s 13-petabyte fraud and identity data moat supports its high-margin Risk segment as its valuation falls to roughly half its peak P/E.
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