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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B
CV's Substack 13 clicks

From X

@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Fully understand the threat and disruption to OTAs from agents circumventing to direct sources (no reason for Hilton to pay to get eyeballs on their properties if theres new way to discover availability, demand and price (keep the economics) I struggle to understand the risk to $ABNB though, assuming its from price competition to list (more discoverable so go with platform that charges the least in take rates??). No real ad revenue so even if you change how people engage with the network it does not have the same impact as businesses with paid placements/rankings A long way off from people coding or buying their own booking nd payment system to let bots discover their basement is available for rent. I would add even if this was readily available its highly unlikely to be the model as both parties want an intermediary to rely on for insurance, communications, arbitration, working capital (book, pay later). Interesting to see this one caught up to the same degree think a lot of the e-commerce players with ad revenue and ranking/paid promotional revenue have a lot more at stake
@AltayCapital 1 click

AltayCap on X

$BKNG discourse regarding agents: If the interface to book changes, OTAs lose. Boutique hotels don't need to be tech savvy. They will run some white label SaaS product that interfaces with agents and handles booking. OTAs are bad for society. Huge take rates (20%+) due to rent seeking. No real innovation / value add to society. Disruption here is good. Disruption will be slow because I imagine bkng contracts will stifle adoption and agent usage is still nothing and won't be anything material for at least a decade. If bkng trades at 30 p/e, it would be an easy short. But today's valuation isn't too demanding. But still tempting to short.

Investor Letters

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Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 53 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 28 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $18B
Latticework by MOI Global 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $18B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 8 clicks

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