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Revenue at Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) has fallen 76% since 2023, but it still has ~4 years of cash. Since losing Kroll, its biggest customer, Nubeva’s revenue has dropped from its FY2023 high of $2.07M. Expenses fell 66% over the same period, from $4.03M to $1.36M. Nubeva booked $500,586 in FY2026, across three revenue lines: 1) Software licenses ($204,055, 41% of revenue): Attributed in the MD&A “primarily” to NuRR, its ransomware-recovery product. 2) Subscriptions ($90,819, 18%): NuRR, down from $113,356 in FY2025. The December 2025 interim MD&A blamed the decline on fewer customers renewing. 3) Support and maintenance ($205,712, 41%): The last TLS (web-traffic decryption) customer, paying under a source-code and distribution agreement Nubeva kept when it sold its TLS technology in March 2024. Just two customers made up 82% of FY2026 revenue (41% each). While the concentration risk exists, both customers have continued working with Nubeva. The TLS customer has been paying since before the March 2024 sale, and the license customer since FY2025. Nubeva ended FY2026 with $2,489,316 of cash and money-market funds and no debt beyond a $12,262 pandemic-era SBA loan. Cash fell $600,162 over the year, which means runway is ~4 years ($2,489,316 / $600,162) if nothing material changes. CEO Randy Chou didn’t expect Nubeva to burn cash in 2025. In a March 4, 2024 video posted the day the TLS sale closed, he said the sale would make Nubeva cash-flow positive for calendar 2024, with 2025 “targeted to be the same.” Instead, cash fell $457,706 in the 12 months to January 31, 2026, the closest reported period to calendar 2025 ($3,184,879 to $2,727,173). In other words, the TLS sale didn’t make Nubeva self-funding, so the ~4-year runway is how long Chou has to automate support or sell. Even if both top customers churned, cash would still cover ~2.5 years of operations. Nubeva hasn’t raised equity since a CAD$1.59M private placement in February 2022, and the last warrants expired in FY2025, so dilution has been minimal.
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High-bandwidth memory generally costs about 5x more per GB than conventional DRAM. As AI systems support longer context windows and more complex reasoning, memory demand is spreading into conventional DRAM and NAND. The mechanism is a tiered memory system. HBM holds active model weights and the context needed now. External DRAM holds a broader pool of context that the model can retrieve, while NAND-based SSDs store less frequently used context and model checkpoints. This keeps more context accessible at a lower cost, with a latency trade-off. Memory producers are operating at approximately 80% gross margins and 60%+ EBIT margins. The industry's through-cycle average gross margin has been 35-40%, and past peaks rarely exceeded 55-60%. Supply explains much of this. Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron invested heavily in capacity during the 2021-2022 boom. That capacity came online in 2023 and 2024, when smartphone, PC and non-AI server demand was weak. All three cut production, recorded operating losses and set conservative capex plans. Samsung cut DRAM output by approximately 15-20% in 2023. The capacity response as of mid-2026: 1. Samsung has targeted a roughly 50% increase in HBM production capacity this year. 2. SK Hynix has accelerated its HBM4 ramp through the M15X fab, while reportedly redirecting some planned HBM4 capacity toward DDR5. 3. $MU has accelerated DRAM and HBM output in Taiwan. Meaningful wafer starts from its new US and Singapore facilities are not expected until 2027 and beyond. These additions are weighted toward HBM and high-end server DRAM, not broad conventional memory capacity. They appear insufficient to close the gap in the near term, so the unusually high margins look likely to persist for several more quarters.

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