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Friday, October 16, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

The complacency is the point. Gas-directed rigs are still only in the low-to-mid 120s and the trend remains essentially flat. Turbine lead times run 3–5 years and the major OEMs are already sold out into 2029–31. Data-center announcements are loud today, but the actual incremental gas draw from behind-the-meter and new generation does not hit the system until the turbines arrive and the sites come online. That lag is why the market can keep treating gas as abundant through 2026–27 even as the structural deficit builds. When the convexity shows up, it will likely arrive later and harder than most are pricing. $EQT, $AR, $CRK
@RagingVentures

Raging Capital Ventures on X

I’m now very bullish on $CMCSA as well. In my view, Peacock/NBCU/theme parks are likely worth around the current market cap alone. Importantly, Peacock / NBC are now competitively advantaged in sports media thanks to a superior combination of reach with their NBC broadcast network and their scaled streaming platform. Comcast Cable is struggling, but they have frontloaded a lot of pain; wireless and the bundle is a growth engine; and the balance sheet is actually a strength (not a weakness). Plus, the 6% dividend pays you to wait for the spin in 2027.
@RagingVentures

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Not the greatest quarter but no change in my $CHTR view, although I did sell some of my October calls today. Owning common and LEAPs are most interesting now. The Cox acquisition should close in mid- to late-August, which I view as a catalyst for analysts and investors to revisit their models. $CHTR is now trading at around 2x pro forma 2028 FCF per share, with incredible balance sheet optionality (which they have started to monetize via buybacks and swaps at a discount). I also think $CHTR has front-loaded a lot of ARPU pain and invested heavily to stabilize video in recent years. While broadband will remain challenged, I don’t believe the worst case scenarios and think wireless growth and pricing can provide a valuable offset.

Investor Letters

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Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $7.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 20 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $92B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks
TY · long

Tri-continental CORP

Tri-Continental Corp is presented as a long investment-grade fixed-income idea for portfolios with limited liquidity and diversification.

TY $1.8B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 28 clicks

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