Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Friday, October 16, 2026

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@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Fully understand the threat and disruption to OTAs from agents circumventing to direct sources (no reason for Hilton to pay to get eyeballs on their properties if theres new way to discover availability, demand and price (keep the economics) I struggle to understand the risk to $ABNB though, assuming its from price competition to list (more discoverable so go with platform that charges the least in take rates??). No real ad revenue so even if you change how people engage with the network it does not have the same impact as businesses with paid placements/rankings A long way off from people coding or buying their own booking nd payment system to let bots discover their basement is available for rent. I would add even if this was readily available its highly unlikely to be the model as both parties want an intermediary to rely on for insurance, communications, arbitration, working capital (book, pay later). Interesting to see this one caught up to the same degree think a lot of the e-commerce players with ad revenue and ranking/paid promotional revenue have a lot more at stake
@AltayCapital 1 click

AltayCap on X

$BKNG discourse regarding agents: If the interface to book changes, OTAs lose. Boutique hotels don't need to be tech savvy. They will run some white label SaaS product that interfaces with agents and handles booking. OTAs are bad for society. Huge take rates (20%+) due to rent seeking. No real innovation / value add to society. Disruption here is good. Disruption will be slow because I imagine bkng contracts will stifle adoption and agent usage is still nothing and won't be anything material for at least a decade. If bkng trades at 30 p/e, it would be an easy short. But today's valuation isn't too demanding. But still tempting to short.

Investor Letters

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Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 27 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 7 clicks
WDC · long

Western Digital CORP

Western Digital, a hard-disk manufacturer, is pitched as a long after significant share-price moves deter investors.

WDC $124B
Value Investors Club 7 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $115B
P Equity Research 38 clicks

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