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Thursday, October 15, 2026

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Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 50 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

One AI data labeling contract could be worth multiples of the $500,586 of revenue Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) booked in FY2026. Its CEO said in a new interview that data labeling companies (firms that turn experts’ knowledge into training data for AI labs) have asked the company to help label malware, and that most of its engineering focus is now on training its own AI model to read malware binaries. Nubeva now has three ways to pay off, up from two: → Having AI write the decryptors for its key-capture software, Ransomware Reversal (NuRR), so Nubeva can grow again or attract a partner/buyer. → A partnership or sale following the approval of all four AI patents. → Selling binary analysis (labeling what malware programs do) to data labeling companies, which could also attract a partner/buyer. Moreover, a data labeling contract wouldn’t depend on NuRR’s sales or on AI writing its decryptors, so it could come before either of the other two routes. CEO Randy Chou gave no price, volume, or timeline for a contract. But if you were to extrapolate the $200-250/hour that Mercor, one of the largest data labeling companies, pays its security experts, one full-time contractor (~2,000 hours/year) would earn $400-500K/year, just about Nubeva’s FY2026 revenue of $500,586. That implies Nubeva could earn multiples of its revenue from a single data labeling contract if its engineers and model can do the work of several contractors. A contract worth three of Mercor’s full-time experts ($1.2-1.5M/year) would be 2.4-3.0x its FY2026 revenue.
@convequity 3 clicks

Convequity on X

$META bulls say its ad cash flow lets it undercut the AI labs on price. The Muse Wonder launch shows Meta matching their prices instead. Meta released Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full on Monday and says they score level with Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra on its own tests. Three details from the launch. 1. Wonder costs $4 per million input tokens and $20 per million output tokens on Meta's API. TechCrunch puts that in the same price band as GPT-6 Sol and Opus 5.5. Meta is pricing with the labs, not under them. 2. The stronger model, Wonder Full, is not on the API at all. It is only available to Muse Code subscribers. A developer comparing API models is not buying the model Meta uses to claim the frontier. 3. Both models are distributed only through Meta's own API and Muse Code subscriptions, and the launch says nothing about releasing the weights. I read this as Meta adopting the labs' business model rather than attacking it. The frontier model is a subscription product, and the API is priced at the labs' level rather than below it. That weakens one part of the bull case. If Meta is not undercutting, the price pressure on the labs that bulls expected has not arrived with this launch. The question for the results on 21 October is what Muse subscriptions, Muse Code and the API are earning against the spend on the Prometheus data centre that trained these models, not whether Meta can take the labs' customers on price.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

$AGLT (Agility Robotics) has cleared SEC review for public listing through $CCXI If you want an estimate timeline: ~Oct 13 (today): SEC S-4 declared effective ~Nov 2nd (shareholder vote): for merger approval ~November: Merger closing and ticker goes live for trading. Company’s official statement was: “The business combination remains subject to approval by Churchill XI shareholders and other customary closing conditions, and is expected to close in November 2026.” So likely less than a month away for the first pure play US humanoid company to go live!

Investor Letters

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AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 22 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 27 clicks

TSMC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

TSMC reported excellent Q3 results, guided Q4 revenue growth higher and saw its shares slip despite strong AI-driven earnings momentum.

TSM $2.3T
Cestrian Capital Research 9 clicks
BLND · long

Blend Labs INC

Blend Labs (BLND) is presented as a long investment idea, with prior VIC writeups cited for business background.

BLND $217M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

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