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Thursday, October 15, 2026

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Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 51 clicks

From X

@negligible_cap

Negligible Capital on X

The rising tide is lifting all AI threatened boats… but should it? Some weekend thoughts as the saaspocalypse seems to be winding down -- TLDR: Long software, short consulting / IT services is interesting: Consulting and IT service names like ACN, CTSH, INFY, GLOB, etc. have rebounded sharply alongside enterprise software names (eg. CRM, NOW, WDAY, TEAM blah blah blah) recently. These moves have been driven pretty much entirely by factor rotation - the rebound in consulting names comes from software’s new AI tailwind rather than being earned by their own fundamentals $ACN, for example, is up 50% in the last two months since the June lows, despite posting their 2nd consecutive guidance cut last quarter -- $CTSH up 67%, $GLOB up 40%, $INFY and $TCS both up around 20%. Despite the rebound, most of their results were very “meh” – several misses in growth / guidance expectations (largely attributed to conflict in the middle east, which probably has some merit), leading to some violent selloffs (Eg. Accenture dropped 18% on June 18 after earnings) Meanwhile, software as we all know is seeing genuine acceleration in some cases, especially in their AI-related revenue metrics, and the narrative is quickly evolving to one in which software is likely to benefit from AI (largely due to strong moats) The same can’t be said for IT services names. Unlike software, where AI is seemingly becoming more additive for their platforms, AI is likely to be structurally deflationary for labor-based IT service models. The current pricing model faces disruption as enterprises seek greater efficiency in delivery and shift towards more outcome-based work. Customers are likely to demand service providers pass on AI productivity gains via lower pricing, especially for contract renewals. Also clients are delaying IT spend due to concerns over rapid AI investments / prioritization of spending elsewhere (eg. IBM’s pre-release, which saw consulting revs miss expectations, among other issues). The growth uncertainty alone likely puts a ceiling on multiples Anyways I know I’m making some very broad generalizations and am probably wrong and this isn’t financial advice but I’ll close it out reminding everyone that Accenture has 800k employees
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

$TLN feels way too oversold here. This is obviously going to remain a political hunting ground into the midterms. Power bills + AI data centers is basically perfect campaign fodder. But the latest PJM proposals increasingly look like the burden of incremental data center capacity falls on Amazon/hyperscalers, not incumbent generation. Meanwhile PJM is still short power, the last auction cleared at the cap and TLN owns scarce nuclear + dispatchable generation. Expect a ton of volatility and noise, but the value is there…

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI…

CMG $39B
Yet Another Value Podcast 87 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 7 clicks
AMADF · long

Amadeus It Group SA

Amadeus IT Group turns long after shares fell more than 20% since a November short call.

AMADF $25B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $10B
CV's Substack 5 clicks

Expert Call | Nebius

Nebius’s 1 GW annual active-capacity target from 2027 is realistic, according to a former product manager, with greenfield data centers…

NBIS $56B
P Equity Research 5 clicks

LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a…

UTHR $24B
Trade Ideas Flow 4 clicks

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