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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.6BSBUX $113B
Yet Another Value Podcast 87 clicks

From X

@ChrisCamillo

Chris Camillo on X

I don’t have differentiated alpha on the memory bubble debate, but one important perspective: Sell side reports projecting the memory supply/demand imbalance to peak in the next few quarters are number crunchers modeling today’s known AI use cases. The problem is AI’s biggest use cases may not exist yet. I’d rather bet on AI creating unforeseen demand than on a spreadsheet correctly predicting its known memory needs two years from now. $SNDK $MU
@convequity

Convequity on X

I do feel like people have cognitive dissonance here: Jeff Dean isn't only about the model application layer — he is the one who masterminded TPU, GOOG's incredible global distributed systems, and making efficient hardware + software actually work. The story isn't simply that models don't matter anymore for GOOG, that GOOG is all in on just AI infra as a more neutral player at the model layer, avoiding heavy investment that could get quickly depreciated by Chinese open source models because infra is the better business. It is simply that GOOG's current model effort is turning south at an accelerated speed. And they know this area is strategically important — otherwise Pichai wouldn't have fought so hard to keep Jeff and others from leaving. You can also excuse GOOG's strategic failure — not foreseeing this year's huge demand, not reserving enough TPU in-house for both model serving and training, and instead selling the capacity to Anthropic — as a smart move to profit from infra and shield away from model competition. It is just that GOOG's internal divisions don't collaborate with each other: the infra team sold out TPU to Anthropic this year in a negotiation done last year, while the model serving and training team never saw the demand coming and never worked that closely with the infra team. By the sheer fact that there are still people sugar-coating this story, I feel less confident about GOOG — although I am still quite bullish on its TPU and infra business. BTW, Anthropic is looking for building its ASIC with $AVGO directly, and also building and running its infra as well. Already they have pivoted away from directly renting GPU from GCP to hosting its TPU and building its kernel to juice up perf by 50% to 2X, and they will continue this optimization route just happening slower than OpenAI does.

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My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $631B
Best Anchor Stocks 27 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $18B
Latticework by MOI Global 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $18B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks

ASML Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

ASML reported Q3 sales of €11.7 billion, up 55% year over year, and guided Q4 sales to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion amid capacity…

ASML $631B
Cestrian Capital Research 10 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 8 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $415M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $115B
P Equity Research 38 clicks

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