October 2026 Random Ramblings
October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.
Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Back to today 
From X
Raging Capital Ventures on X
@orrdavid @merrillmatter To be fair, I asked you *a lot* of questions - $SPCX was far from the hardest! In response, you were fully transparent and didn’t dodge any of my questions. You were great. I can’t wait to share the full cleaned up transcript of our discussion, likely in early November.
Laughing Water Capital on X
@bufetmastermind @secretlyaninja @mbamcnulty maybe i don't. I'd appreciate if you could explain. they had said 50% FCF margin on $1B in sales. $LQDA is still going to get to $1B in sales. Its just going to take longer. Tell me why 50% FCF margins are not in play. Bonus points if you can tell why they won't reduce costs
Fred Liu on X
Is Tiktok Shop slowing? J&T Express just reported SE Asia parcel volumes, and are flat for the year at ~31M per day for the last few qtrs. They're guiding to 50-55% full year growth, implying Q4 holiday season only ramps to 33-37M parcels. Evidence Shopee's VIP & logistics investments are working? $SE $1519.HK
Kuppy on X
I’m sure that $CRWV is money good on funding its gazillions of chip purchase orders, as long as someone funds $CRWV…🤭🤭 https://t.co/TOnS6iGurC
A Capital on X
$KYIV https://t.co/bGd6IJ4Xl0
Deep Sail Capital on X
$DJT Downside still 100% from here https://t.co/6YIEeHfC3e
Investor Letters
All letters- Southeastern Asset Management 3Q26 ACI $6.3BFBIN $4.7B
- Fiduciary Management Q3 2026 CDW $19BJKHY $11B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd September 2026 CHDRF $85BLVMUY $212B
- Latitude Investment Management Q3 2026 ADBE $98BNKE $52B
- Fenimore Asset Management Q3 2026 BN $82BMBGL $5.3B
- FPA Crescent Fund 3Q26 028260 $35BADI $201B
- Mar Vista Investment Partners third quarter 2026 GEV $251BMSFT $4T
- Kingdom Capital Advisors Q3 2026 UNFI $2.9B
My 2028 numbers
ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…
Visa: Unpacking The 7 Powers And Forward Valuation Ahead Of Q4 Earnings
Visa’s network economics support long-term compounding, but a 1.7–1.8 forward PEG and risks to high-margin payment revenues limit near-term…
C Jessen 35 clicks
Deep Dive: Applied Materials ($AMAT)
Applied Materials leads wafer-fab deposition and ranks third in etch, positioning it for tougher 3D chip manufacturing as investors weigh a…
First Tracks Biotherapeutics: Teva Validated The Pathway, ANB033 May Own The Receptor
First Tracks Biotherapeutics’ ANB033 posted stronger Phase 1b celiac efficacy than Teva’s IL-15 inhibitor, with $168 million funding…
Equity Eagle 7 clicks
Research Roundup Vol. LVI
Howmet Aerospace is framed as a beneficiary of turbine and aircraft-engine demand, while J.B.
Lennar: The Misstep Is Temporary, the Operating Machine Is Not
Lennar cut build times to 116 days and adopted an asset-light land model, while gross margin fell to 15.8% from 27.5% as land costs rose.
Lennar, Part One: The Story
Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…
Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive
Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.
ASML Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review
ASML reported Q3 sales of €11.7 billion, up 55% year over year, and guided Q4 sales to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion amid capacity…
Eaton: Strong Backlog And Margin Recovery Support The Buy Case
Eaton’s backlog, data-center, grid and aerospace demand, plus a 450–500 bp H2 2026 Electrical Americas margin recovery, support the growth…
Value Capital Research 5 clicks
SFM · long Sprouts Farmers Market
Sprouts Farmers Market benefits from GLP-1 adoption, scrutiny of ultra-processed foods and dietary restrictions driving demand for natural…
TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/25/2026)
TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ralph Lauren’s $1 billion distribution pullback, Peloton’s $2,195 foldable treadmill and $800 million…
IonQ: Nvidia QPU Catalyst Isn't Enough
IonQ's Q2 2026 revenue rose 287% to $80.1 million, but durability hinges on its $485 million RPO and enterprise adoption for production AI…
Deep Value Investing 
Single Stock Spotlight #15: Rocket Companies (RKT)
Rocket Companies combines Redfin, Rocket Mortgage and Mr. Cooper into an end-to-end homeownership platform, adding mortgage servicing fees…
Eckert & Ziegler: The Pick-and-Shovel Supplier of the Radiopharma Boom – Finally at a Fair Price
Eckert & Ziegler trades near €12, about 14 times expected earnings, as its isotope supply business expands with radiopharma demand despite…
Buffett's Succession Plan Shows What Makes Berkshire Hathaway Unique
Berkshire Hathaway's succession elevates Greg Abel to CEO and Howard Buffett to chairman, reinforcing its acquisition, buyback and…
Jim Sloan 4 clicks
Ouster (NASDAQ: OUST) Stock Rating: Accumulate - Initiating Coverage
Ouster began coverage at Accumulate as lidar revenue rose 56% in Q2, while annual cash burn near $80 million has driven an 86% share-count…
Research & Analysis: The Aaon Group (NASDAQ: AAON)
AAON's BASX data-center cooling business targets $1 million to $1.5 million per megawatt, with new capacity and backlog conversion expected…
Vista Energy: The Cash Engine Is On
Vista Energy's Q2 2026 production rose 32% and revenue 89% as Vaca Muerta acquisitions expand its Argentine export platform and cash…
Alan Galecki 4 clicks
Alsea: Durable Growth at 5.4x EBITDA (Ticker: ALSEA)
Alsea, Mexico’s Starbucks, Domino’s and Burger King franchise operator, trades at 5.4x EBITDA while funding remodels, Mexican expansion and…
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