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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BCMG $39B
Yet Another Value Podcast 87 clicks

From X

@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Imagine being a Wall Street suit, drooling all over your big fat belly, and refusing to buy $GME in this cycle of obese adults buying card board squares of lizards that can spit fire for 69x the cost to print. Pokemon cards still hold value better than the failing U.S. dollar. Wall Street suits are staring at their silly little models, playing with their dumb discount rate, with the inability to pleasure their wives while GameStop transformed their entire business model.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$IMXI now father from deal price than pre deal price. Market obviously saying deal won’t get done. I get AI treadmill math if 10x 2025 Owners Earnings (36m) but H1 2026 annualized is only 10m, FCF for H1 was like 60m due to pre paid wires working Capital benefit. What is interesting is the amount of interest and suitors that made in far before $WU agreed to buy, and also the pretty obvious value/synergies for an acquirer if regulatory hurdles as we’ve seen can be overcome
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry: Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated: - $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially. - NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read through on higher valued products) - Demand for UHP lasers continues to exceed supply Just a status update in terms of how the optical bottleneck is going (laser prices going up, demand exceeds supply). Digitimes also reported today Win Semi ( $SIVE foundry ) was expanding capacity for CW lasers. - "CW products... are expected to gradually emerge in the second half of 2026", with meaningful revenue contribution likely coming in 2027 and 2028. - Win has strengthened inventory management for InP substrates while moving toward 6-in InP wafers for ongoing process testing. Currently relies on Tier-1 International suppliers. - Many of this was spent on DUV tools from $ASML but (Win Semi's orders spanned machinery, equipment, and fab engineering work) So that answers a lot of questions about Sivers' partner "how is this company securing InP substrates", "4in vs 6in", "production timing" TLDR: - NPO > CPO (per Lite), multi-wavelength lasers going brrr for prices - demand > supply (continuation) - Not sure why people have been bear posting Win Semi when turns out they have everything needed to mass produce CW lasers.
@DOMOCAPITAL 1 click

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

We went through how the recent sale of Pep Boys implies a $30 share price for $MNRO. Will they sell? This is where it gets interesting. About a year ago they brough in a restructuring CEO to clean-up the business (i.e. prepping it for a sale?). However, the clearest sign is this: Historically, Solomon owned 19,664 Class C shares that had more voting right than all of the common shares which was a huge impediment on any push to sell the company. However, on June 18, 2026, these shares were converted into 1,204,908 common shares (taking shares outstanding to 31.25M) after pressure from common shareholders. Essentially, Solomon was bribed with an extra 1.185M shares to give up his voting rights. If the company is sold at $30 per share that would be an extra $35M+ for Solomon. It gets even better. Remember the restructuring CEO? Well, the company also started a strategic review which includes a review of selling the entire company. Guess which banks are involved. Bank of America and Solomon Partners engagement began in May of 2026. Yes, the investment bank that Solomon funded will also be getting a cut of the deal for finding a buyer. Solomon, at 87 years old, now has every incentive possible to sell and sell quickly. And Icahn's sale of Pep Boys to Mavis just laid the groundwork. Maybe Icahn, with 33% economic interest in $MNRO, takes the $MNRO land and Mavis takes the operations. The framework already exists. The Pep Boys deal already closed. Icahn has the cash he needs to buy the land. Mavis has the cash to buy the operations.... Meanwhile.... shorts are shorting 40%+ of the float hoping for a dividend cut. The cut isn't happening, because the company is being sold...

Investor Letters

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Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 7 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $382M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $10B
CV's Substack 5 clicks

Expert Call | Nebius

Nebius’s 1 GW annual active-capacity target from 2027 is realistic, according to a former product manager, with greenfield data centers…

NBIS $56B
P Equity Research 5 clicks

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