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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.6BCMG $38B
Yet Another Value Podcast 87 clicks

From X

@HedgeyeRetail

Brian McGough on X

$DKS approaching ATH with a solid gain in a red retail tape. We're short it, so it's working against me right now. Recently moved it lower on our Position Monitor as near-term fundys are in the company's favor. Data looks good right now -- but the data doesn't show margins. And that's my biggest concern here -- zero flow through from comp to margin in the DSG concept (especially house of sport). And FL, well, it's still FL. #DickLocker
@HedgeyeRetail 1 click

Brian McGough on X

A few weeks back, I said something to the effect of "who could be stupid enough to short $CHWY at $25." Lo and behold, the stock is now ticking at $17.50. My statement was wrong. We're not Long CHWY -- yet -- but this company has a solid moat in a duopoly with $AMZN and it's kind of mind numbing to see it trade at 6.8x EBITDA. Valuation is not a catalyst, but we're definitely doing the deep dive on whether going all in on CHWY sub $20 is the right call. Over a TAIL duration, I don't see how you lose. But over TREND, not so sure. Stay tuned...
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$FIS I appreciate the ai narrative and stable coins narrative for broad payment sector names...but $FIS at current prices seems like a good Depp value opportunity. In general the rubber band seems very far stretched between the momentum names in semi capX and the ai "losers" and mega cap tech. Whether its sell the news on $MU earnings, end of quarter rebalancing etc, seems we are on the cusp of a rotation. (even if its only short lasting, should be quite volatile as we say several weeks ago). [going long Amzn, select software, fis, select med tech to play that versus short the SOXX, some derivative names like $CAT]
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

$BFLY the Midjourney ultrasound full body announcement is a highly entertaining read. Sadly I cannot back into what the "ultrasound on a chip" pricing is and what 50,000 units * 40 chips would equate to at Midjourneys target opening in 2031 (as a potential full revenue opportunity). But I do know there are limitations in what ultrasound can scan for versus MRI/CT - their are advantageous for both and why they are used for different imaging needs (pregnancy, organ, blood flow for ultrasound v. skeletal, brain ct) ...So the companies promotion of using ultrasound pools to replace CT is either misleading or an outright lie, it is simply not possible. The story gets worse, they plan on opening spas, with water pools to conduct their scanning. Only doing body composition and no actual medical diagnosis scans to open in SF hopefully in 2027...the maintenance costs will be significant as they have to treat the water before each usage and limits throughput. Plus the renderings imply significant capX that will need to be recouped at some point (either throughput or higher prices than they are leading on). So no idea the propensity of vc funded AI companies to spend irrationally and without regard for economics so perhaps BFLY will be a beneficiary here (seems difficult at their current valuation and the likelihood of Midjourney ever scaling their operation but who knows....) the free spending train rolls on for now. I encourage someone to watch the videos put out by Midjourney its truly something......

Investor Letters

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Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $18B
Latticework by MOI Global 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $18B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 8 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $415M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $10B
CV's Substack 5 clicks

Expert Call | Nebius

Nebius’s 1 GW annual active-capacity target from 2027 is realistic, according to a former product manager, with greenfield data centers…

NBIS $46B
P Equity Research 5 clicks

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