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Wednesday, October 7, 2026

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David Orr on X

Google $GOOG Key bear argument: Search is their largest business and likely faces a long term headwind instead of long term tailwind. At least probably, since they are doing a good job incoperating fast AI responses into search. Android (and iOS and Windows) are threatened. The work culture is weak (but seems to be improving). Key bull argument: Most of their other businesses are good/great and growing. A couple are big AI winners. TPUs in particular are a likely key AI ingredient if either/both inference and electricity efficiency matter a lot (I think yes to both). YouTube is a big AI winner. Cloud/compute biz wins from AI, deals are structured in a way with no downside for $GOOG (but plenty of downside for the companies locking into the contracts). Management are fantastic capital allocators.
@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

I have a theory that a company’s name can sometimes hurt more than help. Forget the obvious dotcom, blockchain and AI naming frenzies. I think there’s a more subtle phenomenon where companies disproportionately sell off because their names are more closely associated with whatever sector or risk the market is trying to avoid, regardless of actual underlying exposure. Look at $PCG vs. $EIX during the LA wildfires. $PCG had less direct exposure but traded at a larger discount. Everyone associates PG&E with bankruptcy, lawsuits and wildfires (thank you, Erin Brockovich). What the hell is Edison International, a light bulb company? Even more subtle: FedEx Freight ($FDXF) vs. $SAIA. One screams trucking and economic cyclicality. The other sounds like a beauty brand. Sometimes the name itself becomes a risk factor…

Investor Letters

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Research Roundup Vol. LV

OpenAI’s enterprise privacy push and Synopsys’s Factory 2 royalty model anchor a technology roundup, alongside oil above $100 and Bitcoin’s…

SNPS $97B
Monte Independent Investment Research

New Position (ONON): Game is On

On Holding (ONON) is gaining sportswear share, expanding store space and launching soccer with Kylian Mbappé as investors debate U.S.

ONON $11B
Aurelion Research 3 clicks

When the Ads Come to the Data

Meta’s Muse could place ads inside its AI agent by letting a private VM select offers from advertisers without sharing user data with…

META $1.8T
MBI Deep Dives 5 clicks

Deep Dive: Intuit ($INTU)

Intuit’s $21.4 billion software franchise faces AI-driven pricing pressure in tax and accounting, even as QuickBooks and TurboTax retain…

INTU $79B
Rebound Capital 4 clicks
VEEV · long

Veeva Systems INC

Veeva Systems is a vertical software company valued as if its best growth years are behind it.

VEEV $46B
Value Investors Club

Canterra Minerals: Research Note

Canterra Minerals increased Lundberg indicated tonnage 55% to 26.1Mt, with 226.2Kt of contained copper equivalent, supporting a Buchans…

EQX $13B
Atrium Research - Equity Research

Kenorland Minerals: Research Flash

Franco-Nevada bought 10.0 million Kenorland shares, a 12.4% stake, for C$22.2 million in a secondary transaction that issued no new shares.

FNV $46B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 1 click

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