Monday, October 5, 2026

Selling Cenovus: Up 78% in 10 Months

Cenovus Energy, up 78% in 10 months, is sold after agreeing to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion at a rich valuation.

CVE $61B

Bison Insights Oct 5 3 clicks

Oct 5 GFL $15B

The Final Countdown: An Update on GFL’s Sale

310 Value’s Newsletter

Oct 5 CRWV $43B

The Thin Margin of Safety in Selling Compute

MBI Deep Dives 10 clicks

From X

@leevalueroach Sep 7 2 clicks

Lee Roach on X

I think I’ll do a deep dive on $FICO. I get they lost their monopoly by neop baby Bill Pulte but Jeeze this is low. https://t.co/g43xw6Lu1c

@convequity Sep 7

Convequity on X

Kirin 9050 Pro is the first Tau Scaling chip. The bigger story is Ascend. Huawei just put LogicFolding in the Mate XT 2. First commercial SoC on the Tau (τ) law He Tingbo laid out in May / updated in July. Not a surprise if you read that paper. Still a real jump: DUV + SAQP + logic stacking took density from 155 → 238 MTr/mm² on the same SMIC N+3 node. +55% in one gen. Power went down, not up. That’s N3-class equivalent density. Headline number matches Intel 18A HD (238) and sits next to Samsung SF2 (~231). TSMC N2 HD is still ahead (~313). Caveat: 238 is Huawei’s LogicFolding equivalent, not a planar N3 shrink. Same device node as 9030 Pro. Some analysts put the industry-formula read closer to ~175. Mobile scoreboard vs last-gen trifold / 9030 Pro: • Device +42% • CPU ST +24% / MT +52% • P-core 3.1 GHz (was 2.75) • CPU / GPU / NPU iso-perf power −41% / −58% / −66% • GPU render +142% • On-device 30B-total-param MoE Multi-core still trails $QCOM’s latest. The gap is no longer multi-generation. Next Tau Kirin can catch, maybe pass, a leading-edge mobile SoC. The packaging tell is sharper than the phone benches. 1.4–1.5μm hybrid-bond pitch. ~50M vertical interconnects. Western HVM hybrid bonding is still ~6μm (TSMC SoIC) to ~9μm (Intel Foveros Direct). If 1.4μm holds, that is SOTA vs Western leading-edge bonding — not the Geekbench print. Phone catch-up is the demo. AI silicon is the payoff. Apply the same fold to Ascend and the process-density gap vs $NVDA peers compresses from the lithography side over the next few quarters. Remaining bottlenecks: domestic DUV tool volume, HBM, packaging, software. I wouldn’t assume they outproduce ASML on DUV. I also wouldn’t fade the direction. Mature DUV + stacking + almost-unlimited power is enough to put China in the token-factory fight vs the US. Tables below. 🧵

@leevalueroach Sep 7

Lee Roach on X

Growth investors who bought Nike $NKE at a 0.05% free cash flow yield at the peak. https://t.co/onptAiCXtu

@leevalueroach Sep 7 2 clicks

Lee Roach on X

@JacobWolinsky Yeah it was so hyped I didn't even bother to read it. Might read it now that $NKE is crashing.

@leevalueroach Sep 7 3 clicks

Lee Roach on X

I remember back in the day all of the growth investors and VC dorks were talking up this book so much. It was literally the Bible for growth investors. But now that $NKE is in the dumps and the stock has cratered I don't see anyone diving in here trying to buy this company on the cheap. But I guess when it had a 1% free cash flow yield that was all good.

@leevalueroach Sep 7 2 clicks

Lee Roach on X

When does McDonald’s $MCD become a buy? I estimate $100 billion of real estate here on a $180 billion market cap and $220 billion enterprise value. Trades at like 15x EBITDA. I usually look at small companies but some of these larger ones are looking interesting. https://t.co/RnRauvu28K

@leevalueroach Sep 6

Lee Roach on X

There will be a point where I just slam my nuts on the table and buy $LULU. Too much hate. The more you guys hate it the better a contrarian signal. https://t.co/bZvCjLOkvk

@Adam_Wyden Sep 6

Adam D. Wyden on X

Holiday weekends create idle hands… funny how the robot just “knows”… pretty soon shareholders will too. $CODI @CODIequity @ACapitalLP @AsifSuria @joemassoud https://t.co/kvE0KFGOMH

Portfolio Update September 2026

Portfolio added Otis Worldwide in the mid-$60s, increased Pool, Copart and Floor & Decor, and sold Berkshire Hathaway.

OTIS $26BCPRT $25B

D Invests Oct 5 1 click

Ciena, A Former Telecom Bust, Is Now In The Early Stages Of A Bona Fide Mega Boom

Ciena’s optical networking equipment sales to stronger telecom customers underpin a 2027 long thesis, unlike its 2000-era boom.

CIEN $57B

Marc Gerstein Oct 5 2 clicks

Brazil could be the Q4 Macro Play – My stock ideas: $NU, $INTR, $PICS and maybe $STNE, $PAGS, $DLO and $MELI

Brazilian fintechs NU, INTR and PICS stand to benefit from a Bolsonaro-led runoff surprise that lowers fiscal risk premiums, rates and the…

NU $75BINTR $3.3B

Substack von Philipp Oct 5 5 clicks

Nyxoah: Label Expansion Set To Unlock A Monopoly In A Billion Dollar Market.

Nyxoah's Genio implant could reach CCC patients after an FDA label expansion, targeting 30% of the obstructive sleep apnea device market by…

NYXH $130M

Stephen Tobin Oct 5 3 clicks

OMSE 2026-10-05

The Monday Morning Briefing: AI Drives Everything, Yet ROI on Massive Capex Remains Uncertain

Latticework’s briefing questions AI capex returns while featuring Close Brothers, Green Landscaping and OMS Energy Technologies.

OMSE $177M

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 5 2 clicks

British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo…

BTI $121B

Invariant Oct 4 5 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B

Irrational Analysis Oct 4 3 clicks

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Group 1 paid $1 billion of goodwill for Hennessy’s 10 dealerships, a record $100 million per store, financed largely with $1.25 billion of…

GPI $2.7B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 4 4 clicks

The Art of Doing Financial Engineering

AI infrastructure’s $6.3 trillion financing gap is driving structured debt and asset-backed solutions, starting with Meta’s planned 5GW…

MS $294B

Net Interest Oct 3 5 clicks

Magnolia Oil & Gas: The WildFire Acquisition Closes

Magnolia Oil & Gas closed its $4 billion WildFire acquisition, adding Eagle Ford acreage with cost synergies and funding the deal with…

MGY $6.7B

Long Player Oct 3 2 clicks

HRVFF · long

Harvia Oyj

HRVFF $927M

Value Investors Club Jul 7 2 clicks

EVI Industries. Margin inflection or fake out?

EVI Industries says its ERP and service-platform build is largely complete, testing whether 10.8% revenue growth can finally outpace…

EVI $238M

Kairos Research Oct 2 2 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

LEN $17BMRP $3.7B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

Single Stock Spotlight #16: Huckleberry.AI (HUCK)

Huckleberry.AI trades near $3.30 against $221 million of cash and $900 million-plus of NOLs after selling its operating business, creating…

HUCK $147M

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Oct 2 5 clicks

Nike: The Defense Holds, the Offense Is Unproven

Nike targets EBIT margin recovery from 5.2% in FY2027 to 13% by FY2032 as revenue declines persist and wholesale, China and digital remain…

NKE $52B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 3 clicks

[scuttleslops] Cloudflare wants bots to pay; OpenAI’s ad ambitions; Memory chip competition; Muse is a proactive assistant; the Wintel of cars and robots; Atlassian as a coordinating layer

Cloudflare is building HTTP 402 payments for AI agents, using its web network to let publishers charge bots for content access.

NET $125B

scuttleblurb Oct 2 1 click

Nike, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Nike’s second Latticework program examines the company and the global athletic footwear and apparel industry for professional investors.

NKE $52B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 1 click

Nike, Part One: The Story

Nike grew from a $1,000 shoe-distribution venture in 1964 into the largest sports brand, using athlete endorsements, product innovation and…

NKE $52B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

ServiceNow: Still A 'Strong Buy' As AI Revenues Gain Traction

ServiceNow expects AI annual contract value to reach $1.5 billion by year-end, with assist-pack consumption pricing supporting growth…

NOW $145B

Jetstream Research Oct 2 1 click

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) Stock Rating: Accumulate After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings

Rocket Lab reported Q2 revenue up 62% to $234.1 million and backlog up 137% to $2.36 billion, while operating losses and cash burn…

RKLB $35BIRDM $4.9B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 2

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