Selling Cenovus: Up 78% in 10 Months
Cenovus Energy, up 78% in 10 months, is sold after agreeing to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion at a rich valuation.
Cenovus Energy, up 78% in 10 months, is sold after agreeing to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion at a rich valuation.
Just want to check in here, thx. $ALOY https://t.co/f8zOpxU1CK
It's 4:06 and $ORCL hasn't reported (they always go around 4:05) https://t.co/lF8nMF1LL5
$CIFR< $16 👀
Sobering one: of 31 distinct names, only 2 have actually reached my Realistic Valuation target. $EVTL and $RR. Median downside capture on the Sept '25 list: 73% of the decline I forecast. On the 2026 lists: 22-41%. Direction right. Magnitude still pending. This means there is still lots of meat on the bone in many of these names.
What I'm carrying into the next list: → Short arithmetic, not narratives → Overleveraged and Industry Bubble earn their slot → Potential Fraud has to clear a much higher bar → Stop re-shorting $RUM Full table and methodology at Shorts & Squeeze Corner.
Across all 110 position-instances: Average short return: +25.7%Median: +23.1%Hit rate: 81% — 89 of 110 names fell Best call, and it wasn't close: $EVTL Vertical Aerospace $5.00 → $0.58 Top performer on all five lists. The Sept '25 entry is +88%. Even the July '26 entry is +66%. The company flagged going-concern risk in a filing this month.
The rest of the Sept '25 podium — a full year of holding: $EVTL +88% $SMR +77% $LVWR +76% $OKLO +73% $BTQ +73% $SOUN +69% $RGTI +67% 19 of the 20 names on that list fell. Nineteen.
Portfolio added Otis Worldwide in the mid-$60s, increased Pool, Copart and Floor & Decor, and sold Berkshire Hathaway.
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HRVFF · long
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