Sunday, October 4, 2026

British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo 1.0’s failure.

BTI $121B

Invariant Oct 4 5 clicks

Oct 4 CBRS $39B

Practical Parametric Yield

Irrational Analysis 3 clicks

Oct 3 META $1.8T

The Art of Doing Financial Engineering

Net Interest 5 clicks

From X

@John_Hempton Oct 4 2 clicks

John_Hempton on X

@DavidWeinetayg @TidefallCapital Debt covenants matter. It won't however be the first or last company to buy itself back into ch11. I mean look at last quarter's buy backs in $FICO.

@leevalueroach Oct 4 3 clicks

Lee Roach on X

Looks like we got 13.5 million shares trading of $GME tonight. Not sure what’s going on. Besides the heavy insider buys. https://t.co/cU9aBeRwRR

@BarbarianCap Oct 4 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

$ONON so in vogue, it made it to the WSJ The Sneaker Taking Over America Was Inspired by iPhones and a Vacuum Cleaner https://t.co/rNjjRCEEnb

@Adam_Wyden Oct 4 1 click

Adam D. Wyden on X

@At50w50882 @310Value @ctfn_news All of their existing debt is portable… this was by design and both mgmt / IR call this out regularly. Only need to raise the new debt….dovigi haters are always gonna hate. That’s why it needs to go private $GFL

@partners_road Oct 4 3 clicks

RiverRoadPartners on X

You can trade many things on the Chicago Merc: soyabeans, gold, lean hogs, crude & rates. Now, CME Group plans to introduce a new commodity to the list: compute. CME calls it “the new currency for the AI economy.” Be careful what you wish for (re: price discovery outside $NVDA).

@convequity Oct 4 1 click

Convequity on X

Convequity’s AI Bubble Barometer (ABBX) — Week of 2 October 2026 Our weekly framework tracks valuations, returns, capex, financing risk and infrastructure capacity across hyperscalers, neoclouds and model labs. Friday 2 Oct 2026 close (US ET): - Price drove the move: EV rose about $44B to about $14,114B. Invested capital (IC) was unchanged at $2,338B. - EV/IC: 6.04x, up 0.02x from 6.02x on 25 Sep. - All-in EV/IC: 6.76x. 1. Returns. Our paired, annualized forward ROIC (which is not trailing accounting ROIC) for Q2 2026 is 30.0%, against an AI WACC of 9.8%: 3.07x ROIC/WACC and a spread of +20.3 percentage points. 2. Capex. Latest-quarter cash capex is $228.7B. 3. Debt. Borrowings are $595B. All-in exposure is $3,624B, or 6.10x borrowings, adding purchase obligations, construction commitments and uncommenced leases on top of borrowings and leases. 4. Gigawatts. Current capacity is 45.7 GW, with 153.4 GW planned. $MSFT versus $GOOGL: MSFT’s all-in exposure is about 17x borrowings, and it is renting more: external capacity is about 12% now and 21% of planned capacity. GOOGL’s all-in exposure is 10.2x borrowings, while its external capacity share remains small at about 4% now. We see a price-led rise in valuation, with modeled forward returns still well above the cost of capital. Future spending commitments are much larger than borrowings alone suggest, and the reliance on rented capacity differs across companies.

@ACapitalLP Oct 4 1 click

A Capital on X

The Muse point is exactly why I think perception is increasingly the whole game. If $GOOGL acquired Muse competitor Instinct tomorrow, does $META’s implied multiple compress before a single earnings estimate changes? Probably. The market is repricing perceived competitive advantage long before anyone can quantify the actual economics.

@DevinLaSarre Oct 4 2 clicks

Devin LaSarre on X

Newest out. British American Tobacco: Harvest $BTI $PM $MO $IMBBY $HAYPP $STG https://t.co/IjOEe4izVz

Walmart: Fiscal 2028 Consensus Leaves No Room For Diesel Or Rollbacks

Walmart's FY28 consensus requires 15–18% operating-income growth above plan despite diesel costs, price investments and a non-recurring…

WMT $877B

Sameer Shahzad Oct 3 2 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

LEN $18B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/02/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Meta’s AI agent ambitions, Netflix’s TV gaming strategy and Arc’teryx’s rise from $500 million to more than $2…

META $1.8TNFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 2 3 clicks

Nike: The Defense Holds, the Offense Is Unproven

Nike targets EBIT margin recovery from 5.2% in FY2027 to 13% by FY2032 as revenue declines persist and wholesale, China and digital remain…

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

[scuttleslops] Cloudflare wants bots to pay; OpenAI’s ad ambitions; Memory chip competition; Muse is a proactive assistant; the Wintel of cars and robots; Atlassian as a coordinating layer

Cloudflare is building HTTP 402 payments for AI agents, using its web network to let publishers charge bots for content access.

NET $125B

scuttleblurb Oct 2 1 click

Nike, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Nike’s second Latticework program examines the company and the global athletic footwear and apparel industry for professional investors.

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 1 click

Nike, Part One: The Story

Nike grew from a $1,000 shoe-distribution venture in 1964 into the largest sports brand, using athlete endorsements, product innovation and…

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

ServiceNow: Still A 'Strong Buy' As AI Revenues Gain Traction

ServiceNow expects AI annual contract value to reach $1.5 billion by year-end, with assist-pack consumption pricing supporting growth…

NOW $145B

Jetstream Research Oct 2 1 click

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) Stock Rating: Accumulate After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings

Rocket Lab reported Q2 revenue up 62% to $234.1 million and backlog up 137% to $2.36 billion, while operating losses and cash burn…

RKLB $40B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 2

American Healthcare REIT: A Dip Buy Driven By Senior-Care And Outpatient Tailwind

American Healthcare REIT’s senior-housing and outpatient portfolio is driving FFO growth and dividend safety, while a rich valuation limits…

AHR $12B

Albert Anthony Oct 2 1 click

Bitmine Immersion (BMNR): DAT Ain't No Strategy

BitMine Immersion, an $18 billion Ethereum digital-asset treasury, faces a short thesis that its DAT model is becoming obsolete.

BMNR $15B

Kerrisdale Capital Oct 8

Stock Story: Next PLC's Capital Return Framework

Next PLC’s 9% IRR buyback hurdle helped cut its share count 53% over 20 years, lifting EPS 418% despite profit growth of just 2% annually.

NXT $13B

Sector Stories Oct 1

Kaspi ($KSPI)

Kaspi trades at 7 times earnings while growing 40%, with its $1 billion Hepsiburada acquisition adding Turkish expansion risk.

KSPI $18B

Calvin Blissett Sep 15

Oracle and Animal Spirits

Oracle’s $455 billion RPO and four-year cloud guidance position it as OpenAI’s primary infrastructure partner, while requiring major…

ORCL $429B

Fabricated Knowledge Sep 15

High FCF Yield Stocks; Returns from Business Results vs P/E Ratio Expansion

High-FCF-yield stocks can compound through dividends, buybacks and business growth without P/E expansion.

UNH $340B

Base Hit Investing Sep 15

CoreWeave (CRWV): Artificial Returns

CoreWeave (CRWV) has risen 30% in a week and nearly 200% above its IPO price, becoming a focal point of the AI infrastructure bubble.

CRWV $43B

Kerrisdale Capital Sep 15 1 click

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) – Pricing Power Impaired?

Fair Isaac raised FICO Score royalties from roughly $0.50–$0.60 in 2022 to $4.95 in 2025, drawing regulatory scrutiny over its…

FICO $16B

Bristlemoon Capital Sep 11

Bristlemoon Capital on Business Breakdowns – MercadoLibre (MELI)

MercadoLibre’s Daniel Wu discusses MELI’s Latin American e-commerce operations, fintech business model, growth opportunities and risks on…

MELI $94B

Bristlemoon Capital Sep 5

Global Spirits: Q2 Earnings Update

Diageo and Campari remain preferred as spirits sales face destocking, elevated inventories and weak guidance, while Campari increases…

DEO $50B

Sector Stories Sep 4

Lagging Edge will have a Permanent Glut

Texas Instruments faces a permanent lagging-edge chip glut as Chinese capacity floods auto and industrial markets, weakening pricing and…

TXN $257B

Fabricated Knowledge Sep 4

John_Hempton on X

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Barbarian Capital on X

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A Capital on X

Devin LaSarre on X

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